Valsad: BJP's Newcomer Prepares for Contest Against Congress MLA in Gujarat's Key Seat

Around 10 lakh voters are tribals and it has the distinction that if a candidate of any particular party wins from here, that party goes on to form a government at the Centre, though I think that it is purely coincidental, said Mukesh Desai, a senior journalist of Vapi, an industrial town in Valsad district.

With the 25 Lok Sabha seats of Gujarat set to go to the polls on May 7, all eyes are glued on the bellwether seat of Valsad which holds the rare distinction of choosing the winning party at the Centre every single time since 1952. While the experts call this trend a pure coincidence, many believe there is more to this unbroken coincidence, something that no political party can afford to ignore.

The results of 1977 and 1989 elections, outliers in a sense as the Congress faced defeat in both the elections, are perhaps good examples to back Valsad's credentials as a bellwether seat. In post-Emergency elections of 1977, for the first time a non-Congress government was formed under prime minister Morarji Desai. Valsad, then known as Bulsar, captured the mood and had elected Janata Party's candidate. Similarly, in 1989, a Janata Dal nominee bagged the seat and subsequently, the Janata Dal leader VP Singh went on to become the prime minister of the country, defeating Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress party. ''This seat has a majority tribal population. Around 10 lakh voters are tribals and it has the distinction that if a candidate of any particular party wins from here, that party goes on to form a government at the Centre, though I think that it is purely coincidental,'' said Mukesh Desai, a senior journalist of Vapi, an industrial town in Valsad district. In 2014, when the BJP clinched the prized seat, PM Narendra Modi formed the government at the centre. In 2019, BJP's candidate won Valsad's seat by a margin of over 3.5 lakh votes, and following the trend, BJP too retained its power at the Centre with a thumping majority.

This time, the BJP has fielded a fresh face, while the Congress has put up a strong candidate in this tribal-dominated seat. Besides tribal, the constituency has around 1.5 lakh Muslim voters and 70,000 Dalit voters, other voters belong to the general and Other Backward Classes (OBC) categories. While the Congress has fielded its firebrand tribal MLA from Vansda, Anant Patel, for the Scheduled Tribe (ST) reserved seat; the BJP has given its ticket to Dhaval Patel, a fresh face, by replacing its two-time MP KC Patel. ''The Congress candidate is strong and popular among tribal people as he has in the past led various agitations on local issues and fought successfully against the administration. While BJP candidate Dhaval Patel, though he is from this constituency, is settled in Surat. ''People do not know the BJP candidate much here but he has been selected by party central leadership as he was working in IT cell of BJP and also comes from the same region Vansda from where the Congress candidate hails,'' explained Desai, adding that he expects a ''tough fight'' for the seat in the upcoming elections. However, to political analyst Vikas Upadhyay, BJP looks set to hit a hat-trick, though he admits that the margin this time might dip significantly. ''Dhaval Patel is a technocrat who is taking on aggressive Congress candidate Anant Patel. The constituency is definitely witnessing a fight this time. I think that BJP will win, but the margin will be narrow. ''It is true that so far whoever wins the Valsad constituency has gone on to form government at the Centre. But I think that this is purely coincidental. Valsad is not such an elite seat which can gauge the mood of the nation,'' he added. Congress candidate Anant Patel talks about receiving ''good response'' from voters ahead of the elections. ''I am seen as a fighter, an aggressive leader who has led many agitations. Not only tribal, but people of all castes have come forward to express their support for me,'' said Patel to the reporters recently. BJP's Dhaval Patel is also confident about his victory. ''Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done a lot of work to pull tribal people out of poverty, like giving health insurance and implementing the Ujjwala scheme. These elections are not about Dhaval Patel, but to make Narendra Modi prime minister for the third time,'' Patel said while addressing a public meeting recently. Lakshman Patel, a local tea vendor, is a strong believer of the historical fact that the party that wins in Valsad goes on to form the government. ''This has been happening every time so it is significant and cannot be ignored,'' he said. In 1996, the BJP won this seat for the first time, which helped Atal Bihari Vajpayee to form a 13-day-long government at the Centre. Vajpayee again got elected as prime minister in 1998 and 1999, and the BJP had won this seat both the times. In 2004, Congress candidate Kishan Patel snatched this seat from the BJP which helped the party form a coalition government at the Centre. Again in 2009, the Congress bagged the seat with Kishan Patel emerging victorious by getting 7,169 more votes than BJP candidate DC Patel. Congress has won the seat for four times from 1952 to 1971, and each time the party had gone on to form government at the centre, including in 1980 and 1984 when Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi became the prime ministers, respectively. In 1991, the Congress candidate won the seat and PV Narasimha Rao became the country's PM.

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