Half-degree less warming can avoid precipitation extremes: Study
A total of 175 parties (174 countries and the European Union) agreed to work to stop global warming from increasing more than two degrees Celsius, and every effort is to be made to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius and prevent the last half of a degree of warming.
The half-degree Celsius is so significant that it could be the barrier preventing extreme precipitation events, according to Tianjun Zhou, a professor at the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences.
"Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to two degrees Celsius, would reduce areal and population exposures to once-in-10-year or once-in-20-year extreme precipitation events by approximately 20 to 40 percent," Zhou said.
Researchers combined CMIP5, an archive of comprehensive climate models, with socio-economic projections to investigate future climate changes and the accompanying impacts.
"Realising the 1.5 degrees Celsius low warming target proposed by the Paris Agreement could robustly benefit the populous global monsoon region, in terms of lower exposure to precipitation extremes," Zhou said.
"(Our results) are robust across climate models, different definitions of dangerous events, future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, and population scenarios," said Zhou.
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