Brazil to produce record 119mt of soybeans
The harvesting process has brought positive surprises for the market, says Adriano Gomes.
More than expected outputs have prompted AgRural to increase its estimate for Brazil's soybean crop 2017/18 to a new record of 119 million tonnes from 117.9 million in March forecast, according to data passed by the consultancy to Reuters on Monday.
The volume, if confirmed, outstrips 114 million tonnes from the previous cycle, when climatic conditions were considered perfect in the country, it would become the world's largest oilseed exporter. In the last harvest, the area planted was smaller than that of the current season.
The new projection also contrasts with the fears raised in the planting phase, when a drought led the sector to bet on a smaller crop.
According to AgRural analyst Adriano Gomes, the harvesting process, however, has brought positive surprises for the market, something that should continue to occur in this final stretch of work in the fields.
"The soybean harvest is beginning to gain momentum in the later regions, especially in Matopiba and the Rio Grande do Sul. In Matopiba the crop is splendid, with yields of more than 60 sacks per hectare, said Gomes, referring to the agricultural frontier made up of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, and Bahia.
Reuters reports, who accompanied the Rally Safra technical expedition at the end of last month in Bahia and Tocantins, indicated great productivity in the region.
In the Rio Grande do Sul, the country's third-largest producer, soybean season this year will not be the highest due to a drought in the southern portion of the state, despite a "good harvest" in the west, Gomes commented.
The record soy production in Brazil this year would partly offset the crop failure in Argentina because of the drought.
It would also represent the greater availability of the product to China, the main buyer of the Brazilian oilseed, which announced rates on the commodity coming from the United States in the midst of a commercial war with that country.
In relation to corn, whose harvest of the first crop exceeds half of the area foreseen and the planting of the second one has already been completed in the center-south of Brazil, AgRural has made minor adjustments.
As for the first harvest, the summer, the production estimate went from 20.5 million to 20.7 million tons. The second harvest is expected to total 59.9 million tons, compared to 60.2 million in the previous projection - the forecast now takes into account a trend line of productivity.
According to Gomes, the downward revision in maize is a result of a smaller planted area in the center-south, which is expected to fall 4.4 percent from the previous cycle to 10.435 million hectares. In March, AgRural forecast a 4 percent decline compared to 2016/17.
The analyst pointed out that the climatic conditions inspire attention this year regarding the development of the second corn crop.
The delay in corn planting in Paraná was due to the slowness of the soybean withdrawal from the field, which, in turn, was impacted between January and March by excessive rains.
(With inputs from Reuters)