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IMF's paper of twin deficits and current account balance in developing countries

IMF has released a discussion paper that provides new evidence on the existence and magnitude of the “twin deficits” in developing economies.


IMF 29 Jul 2018, 03:18 AM
  • This effect is substantially larger than that obtained using standard measures of fiscal impulse. (Image Credit: Wikimedia)

IMF has released a discussion paper that provides new evidence on the existence and magnitude of the “twin deficits” in developing economies.

It finds that one percent of GDP unanticipated increase in the government budget balance improves, on average, the current account balance by 0.8 percentage point of GDP.

This effect is substantially larger than that obtained using standard measures of fiscal impulse, such as the cyclically-adjusted budget balance.

The results point to heterogeneity across countries and over time.

The effect tends to be larger during recessions; in countries

(i) that are more open to trade

(ii) that have less flexible exchange rate regimes

(iii) with lower initial public debt-to-GDP ratios

The full report is available on IMF's website in English.


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