UPDATE 2-Betting odds indicate 89 percent chance UK's May wins confidence vote


Reuters | Updated: 12-12-2018 22:02 IST | Created: 12-12-2018 22:02 IST

The betting odds have shifted sharply towards British Prime Minister Theresa May surviving a no-confidence vote on Wednesday after a leadership contest was called by lawmakers upset by her handling of Britain's planned exit from the European Union.

The shift comes after a flurry of bets that she will win the vote and more than half of her Conservative Party lawmakers publicly backed the prime minister, meaning she would survive and cannot be challenged again for another year.

The likelihood that May will the win the vote has risen to 89 percent, according to bookmakers William Hill, Paddy Power and Ladbrokes. Earlier in the day, William Hill said there was a 60 percent chance she will survive, Paddy Power had odds of 71 percent and Ladbrokes 67 percent.

"The money suggests that Theresa May will survive today's vote," said Rupert Adams, a William Hill spokesman. "But things remain bleak and we fully expect her to leave office in 2019."

May is fighting for her job after facing a rebellion by Eurosceptic lawmakers over her management of Brexit. Many politicians in her party have called for her to be ousted because she is not pursuing a complete break with the EU.

May needs a simple majority - 159 of 317 Conservative lawmakers - to remain leader. A secret ballot will be held between 1800 and 2000 GMT and an announcement made at 2100.

Paddy Power said the most likely outcome is that between 70 and 109 of Conservative lawmakers vote against her.

Ladbrokes said the highest probability is that between 100 to 149 of her lawmakers will vote against her.

Paddy Power said the odds for a second referendum on Brexit were now 58 percent, with a 42 percent probability of a general election before Britain is due to leave the EU in March.

The odds of parliament and the EU agreeing the prime minister's divorce deal by the end of March are 36 percent.

In a warning to hardline eurosceptic opponents who instigated the leadership challenge, May said if they toppled her then the EU exit would be delayed and perhaps even stopped.

If May loses the vote it will trigger a leadership challenge. The two most likely next prime ministers are the former foreign minister Boris Johnson and the former Brexit minister Dominic Raab, who until taking that job in the summer was relatively unknown, according to the betting companies.

But odds can be misleading. In the run-up to Britain's 2016 referendum on membership of the European Union, the odds suggested there was a more than 80 percent likelihood that voters would support staying. (Editing by Stephen Addison/Mark Heinrich)

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

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