Trade woes, growth concerns take toll on emerging market stocks

Emerging market stocks dipped on Wednesday as fresh doubts over progress in U.S.-China trade talks and global growth concerns weighed while developing world currencies held firmed against a resurgent dollar. A report of a preliminary U.S.-China trade meeting being cancelled, though later denied by Washington on Tuesday, put a lid on risk sentiment towards the developing world.

"We are sceptical about any concrete deals being made in the short-term," said Morten Lund, an analyst with Nordea Markets. "Let's see if Trump changes his mind," he added, noting pressure on U.S. markets would give fresh impetus to talks.

MSCI's index of emerging market stocks declined 0.2 per cent, adding to Tuesday's 0.8 per cent fall. Stocks in Taiwan, which have a significant weighting on the benchmark lost half a per cent, while those in fellow heavyweights China and South Korea averted heavy losses on hopes China will step up stimulus measures to support its economy.

In the spot market, China's yuan firmed to wipe away all losses incurred since Friday. Turkey's lira firmed 0.3 per cent, weathering data showing consumer confidence fell to 58.2 points in January from 58.7 points a month earlier.

Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said he expects the issue with the United States involving state-backed Halkbank in an Iran sanctions-busting case to be resolved soon. However, some market participants found Albayrak's assertion that Ankara currently sees no recession or negative growth hard to believe.

"We do believe that Turkey will be hit with the recession, and do not share that view. It's a bit surprising their stance given from the sources we know policymakers are at a consensus over the country going into recession," said Nordea's Lund. Turkish stocks rose 0.4 per cent, while Halkbank's shares gained 1.1 per cent.

Russia's rouble strengthened 0.2 per cent, while firm prices of oil aided the country's energy stocks as they drove the local equity index 0.3 per cent higher. South Africa's rand firmed 0.6 per cent, recouping some of the Tuesday's 1.1 per cent loss.

Data showed headline consumer inflation slowed to 4.5 per cent year on year in December from 5.2 per cent in the previous month, in line with expectations of a Reuters poll. In emerging Europe, Romania's leu firmed 0.3 per cent against the euro, to recover some of Tuesday's losses, which saw it trade at an all-time low, down 1.4 per cent.

Analysts at Societe Generale wrote in a note that while Romania's currency reserves appear sufficient to manage foreign exchange pressures, policy inaction such as not using reserves, changing fiscal policy, or introducing other stabilization policies could keep the leu under pressure as sentiment is fragile. The surplus yield investors receive by holding Romanian local 10-year bonds as compared to German local 10-year bonds hit its highest in more than six years during the session - at over 498 basis points.

(With inputs from agencies.)