SCENARIOS-Who might upset Macron's bid for a second term in office

MACRON - ZEMMOUR The rise in recent months of Eric Zemmour, the talk show star who channels former U.S. President Donald Trump's anti-establishment style as he paints himself as the would-be savior of a nation under threat from Islam, upended the early campaign race.

France's 2022 presidential election is Emmanuel Macron's to lose. All opinion polls show the incumbent president reaching the second round and winning re-election. However, after a first term mired in social unrest - during which he took steps to liberalize France's labor laws, cut taxes on the wealthy and businesses, and tried to reconfigure trans-Atlantic relations - the margins are tighter than the drubbing he delivered to the far right's Marine Le pen in 2017.

Here's a look at the leading second-round scenarios: MACRON - LE PEN

Until the autumn, the conventional wisdom was that next year's vote would be a repeat showdown between Macron and Marine Le Pen, the matriarch of France's far-right. It was a contest Macron sought: voters have consistently kept her far-right party out. Le Pen has campaigned hard in recent years to soften her Rassemblement National party's euro-skeptic, anti-immigration image to broaden its popularity.

She found herself outflanked by Eric Zemmour and her support fell as she lost voters to the far-right pundit. She remains the most likely candidate to face Macron in April's second-round runoff, but her place is not as assured as it once seemed. Surveys show her picking up 19-22% in the first round.

In the second round, Macron would beat Le Pen 54%-46%, an IFOP poll showed - a far narrower margin than the resounding defeat she suffered in 2017. MACRON - ZEMMOUR

The rise in recent months of Eric Zemmour, the talk show star who channels former U.S. President Donald Trump's anti-establishment style as he paints himself as the would-be savior of a nation under threat from Islam, upended the early campaign race. Some surveys showed Zemmour reaching the second round, but his support has fallen back as he struggles to formulate ideas beyond immigration and security while COVID-19 dominates headlines.

A Harris Interactive poll published on Nov. 30 showed him winning 13% of votes in the first round. Zemmour, an eloquent orator and best-selling author, says non-Christian names like Mohammad and the wearing of religious symbols such as Islamic headscarves should be banned because they erode France's identity as a Christian civilization.

Macron would comfortably defeat Zemmour in the second round, polls have shown. MACRON VS. CENTRE-RIGHT CANDIDATE

The battle for far-right and staunchly conservative voters may yet open the door to the moderate right - the scenario which most unnerves the Macron administration. The center-right Les Republicains party has yet to nominate its challenger.

Nationwide polls show Xavier Bertrand, a one-time insurance salesman from the provinces who served as labor minister under Nicolas Sarkozy, to be the front-runner for the ticket. The Harris Interactive poll showed Bertrand ahead of Zemmour for the first time since September. But many party members -- who will pick the candidate -- have not forgiven Bertrand for quitting the party after Macron's 2017 victory.

The dark horse in the race to be the center-right nominee may emerge as Michel Barnier, the European Union's former chief Brexit negotiator. Polls show, however, that Barnier would fare worse against Macron than either Bertrand or another center-right challenger, Valerie Pecresse, who heads the greater Paris region.

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)