Somalia Holds Sixth National Climate Outlook Forum to Address 2025 Gu Seasonal Risks

The forum hosted representatives from the Federal Government of Somalia, Federal Member States, FAO, WMO, ICPAC, and various sectors, including agriculture, food security, water, health, and disaster risk management.

On March 4–5, Somalia convened its Sixth National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF6) in Mogadishu to assess and strategize responses to the anticipated climate conditions for the upcoming Gu (March-April-May) season. The forum, organized by the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MoECC) with technical support from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Somalia, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Eastern and Southern Africa office, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), brought together over 40 participants from key institutions and climate-sensitive sectors.

Key Participants and Objectives

The forum hosted representatives from the Federal Government of Somalia, Federal Member States, FAO, WMO, ICPAC, and various sectors, including agriculture, food security, water, health, and disaster risk management. The primary objectives of NCOF6 were to analyze the climate outlook for the Gu 2025 season, assess the impacts of the preceding Deyr (October-December) 2024 season, and formulate mitigation strategies for the upcoming season.

Climate Outlook for Gu 2025

According to the forum’s findings, below-average rainfall is expected across most parts of Somalia, with the highest probability of drier-than-normal conditions exceeding 50% in Gedo, Hiraan, Middle Shabelle, Bakool, Bay, and inland parts of both Galguduud and Mudug regions. Furthermore, above-normal temperatures are predicted with a greater than 60% probability in Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Puntland, and Somaliland.

Rainfall onset is expected to vary across the country:

• Early onset (April 10-17): Western and northern parts of Gedo region.
• Moderate onset (April 17-24): Lower Juba, Southwest, and Hirshabelle States.
• Late onset (April 24-30): Mudug and southern Nugaal regions.
• Maximum wet spells: Expected between April 20 and May 11, particularly in coastal parts of Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Puntland.

Implications and Recommended Actions

The projected drier-than-normal conditions and above-average temperatures pose significant risks to food security, water availability, and livestock survival. Extended dry periods could worsen drought conditions, increasing humanitarian needs and economic vulnerabilities.

To address these risks, the forum issued several recommendations:

• Early Warning Systems & Response: Government and humanitarian agencies should enhance early warning dissemination and scale up drought response measures.
• Agricultural & Water Management Strategies: Farmers and livestock keepers should adopt climate-resilient agricultural practices and implement water conservation techniques.
• Health Preparedness: Health and disaster management authorities should prepare for increased cases of heat-related illnesses and waterborne diseases.
• Humanitarian Assistance: Development partners and NGOs must provide timely interventions, particularly in the most affected regions.
• Stakeholder Collaboration: Continuous engagement with local communities and authorities is essential for effective climate adaptation and resilience-building.

Funding and Support

NCOF6 was made possible through the financial and technical backing of the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Horn of Africa project, which played a crucial role in organizing the forum and developing actionable climate services.

As Somalia prepares for the Gu 2025 season, collaboration among government agencies, humanitarian organizations, and local communities will be key to mitigating the adverse impacts of climate variability and strengthening resilience in the face of ongoing environmental challenges.