Devdiscourse News Desk| Los Angeles | United States
Most of the recent growth projections for the U.S. economy are way too optimistic, as they are mainly based on a debt scheme, says Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive of DoubleLine Capital. In fact, some signs of slowing up are evident in the U.S. economy, which could lead the country to another recession in one or two years, warns the Bond King.
The Atlanta Federal Reserve recently forecast real gross domestic product at 1.6 percent, and a Citigroup Inc. basket of economic indicators has fallen to its lowest level since the financial crisis, Gundlach said on an asset-allocation webcast Tuesday. The Atlanta Fed figure can be volatile.
The probability of a recession in the next two years "would be extremely high," Gundlach said. "Twelve months I'd give you a recession probability that's 50-50. Next six months I'd probably have it down at 30 percent."
Gundlach, whose Los Angeles-based firm oversaw more than $130 billion as of the end of March, also said:
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