Left Menu
Development News Edition

India’s GDP growth seen at 1.2 pc for Q4 FY20: SBI report

PTI | Mumbai | Updated: 26-05-2020 14:52 IST | Created: 26-05-2020 14:49 IST
India’s GDP growth seen at 1.2 pc for Q4 FY20: SBI report
Representative Image Image Credit: ANI

The country's GDP is estimated to have grown at 1.2 percent in the last quarter of the previous fiscal as economic activity came to a standstill in the last week of March due to the nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of COVID-19, a report said. According to SBI's research report – Ecowrap - the gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to be 4.2 percent for FY20 and (-) 6.8 percent for FY21. The fourth-quarter GDP growth number for FY20 will be announced by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on May 29.

In the third quarter of FY20, GDP growth slipped to a nearly seven-year low of 4.7 percent. In Q1 and Q2 of FY20, GDP growth was 5.1 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively. "We believe that Q4 (FY20) GDP growth would be around 1.2 percent as the economic activity in the last seven days of March month was completely suspended due to the nationwide lockdown," the research report said.

The report sees a loss of at least Rs 1.4 lakh crore during those seven days of lockdown. "Subsequently, the annual FY20 GDP growth would be around 4.2 percent as compared to 5 percent as it was projected earlier," the report said.

It estimates FY21 GDP growth to be around (-) 6.8 percent and gross value added (GVA) growth would be nearly (-) 3.1 percent. The loss is maximum (around 50 percent) in red zones and where almost all the big districts of the country are located. The combined loss of orange and red zones is around 90 percent of a total loss.

State-wise analysis indicates that the top 10 states accounted for 75 percent of total GDP loss with Maharashtra contributing 15.6 percent of total loss followed by Tamil Nadu (9.4 percent) and Gujarat (8.6 percent). These three states also have the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the country. The report further said COVID-19 cases in the country could peak anytime in the last week of June.

"Based on the current 7-day moving average of new cases witnessed in the country, we believe that new cases are likely to peak somewhere in the last week of June, beginning June 20," the report said. Following that, the new cases are expected to witness a steep fall till the beginning of August after which it is expected to gradually reduce to flatten by mid-September. The report, however, said the estimates are purely based on an assessment of current trends that can quickly change given the cyclonic disaster in West Bengal and the continued return of migrant laborers.

The number of COVID-19 cases in the country stood at 1,45,380, as per health ministry data.


TRENDING

OPINION / BLOG / INTERVIEW

Why COVID-19 is unstoppable in USA despite it being ranked at the top of GHS Index?

Several worst-hit countries such as Italy, France, Spain, the UK, Canada, and Russia have peaked COVID-19 cases in April. Almost all of them have gradually flattened the curve. However, the USA is setting new daily records of infections tha...

COVID-19 seems cooking biggest ever global scam

The increasing number of corruption cases on COVID-19 funds from throughout the world and involvement of high profile persons indicate that the countries cant ignore corruption in their pandemic response programs. This has generated the nee...

Health Management Information Systems lack holistic, integrated, and pandemic resilient character

Being a part of the United Nations system, the World Health Organization WHO deserves its share of rebuke for its alleged failure issue COVID-19 health emergency alerts on appropriate time. However, the pandemic has also exposed loopholes i...

Pride in the time of coronavirus: a welcome move online?

This year is different in many ways not least as celebrations are also taking place against the dramatic backdrop of a global health crisis and a resurgence in grassroots activism following the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis. ...

Videos

Latest News

Sports News Roundup: NBA docs worried about lingering effects of COVID-19; Golf-Morikawa hangs on for playoff win at Muirfield and more

Following is a summary of current sports news briefs.NBA docs worried about lingering effects of COVID-19League physicians and officials are concerned about the lingering health effects for NBA players who contract the coronavirus, ESPN rep...

Health News Roundup: WHO reports record daily increase in global coronavirus cases; Australian pub cluster adds to second-wave coronavirus fears and more

Following is a summary of current health news briefs.Florida sets one-day record with over 15,000 new COVID cases, more than most countriesFlorida reported a record increase of more than 15,000 new cases of COVID-19 in 24 hours on Sunday, a...

I'm good at fighting back if I need to: Elisabeth Moss

Actor Elisabeth Moss says her parents gave her the confidence to speak up for things she stands for. The Handmaids Tale star said she has always believed in herself. I was raised to believe in myself. I was raised to believe that I should...

I-T raids in Delhi, Jaipur in tax evasion case against Raj group

The Income Tax Department is conducting searches in four cities, including Delhi and Jaipur, in connection with a tax evasion case against a Rajasthan-based jewellery group, officials said on Monday. They said the raids have been launched e...

Give Feedback