War-torn Waters: The Impact on India's Rice Exports

India's rice exports have slightly decreased in early 2026, largely due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran affecting basmati shipments to the Gulf. The disruptions led to a decline in both export volumes and a fall in Indian rice prices, despite a record harvest.

In the opening months of 2026, India's rice exports have witnessed a marginal decline, primarily attributed to geopolitical tensions. The ongoing war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran has particularly disrupted the shipment of the premium basmati variety to crucial Gulf markets, according to two government officials who spoke anonymously.

This downturn in rice exportation has compounded pressure on India's domestic rice prices. Official data reveal a 1.3% decrease in overall rice export volume, reducing it to 8.39 million metric tons from the previous year's figures. Particularly hard-hit are basmati exports, which fell by 7%, while non-basmati varieties saw a slight increase.

The conflict has led to significant logistical challenges. Shipping routes, notably via the Strait of Hormuz, have been heavily affected, disrupting maritime traffic. This has prompted buyers and exporters to delay new transactions. Additionally, the increased shipping insurance and freight costs further complicate the global rice trade, putting India in fierce competition with nations like Thailand and Vietnam.