Brexit delay probability raised to 85% from 60%, JPMorgan says

U.S. investment bank JPMorgan raised the probability of an extension to Brexit to 85% from 60% and cut the likelihood of a no-deal departure from the European Union. The bank cut the probability of a no-deal Brexit to 10% from 25% and cut the probability of an exit on the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement to 5% from 15%.

"The big increase in probability goes to Article 50 being extended," JPMorgan analyst Malcolm Barr said in a note to clients. "With the Benn law having been passed and looking Boris-proof at this stage, we mark the odds of a no-deal Brexit down sharply compared to early September," the bank said.

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