China's corn harvest set to grow; US corn 'not an option yet,' COFCO Futures research director says

China's corn output is expected to rise this ​year while imports edge lower, with ‌US supplies "not ​an option yet" because they remain uneconomical, Zhang Dalong, agricultural products research director at COFCO Futures, said on Tuesday. Speaking at a conference in the northeastern city ‌of Dalian, Zhang said China's new-crop corn production would increase by 5 million to 8 million metric tons from last year, largely driven by gains in North China.

"In the Northeast, planted area increased but yields declined, while corn output and ‌quality improved in North China," he said. Zhang forecast China's 2026/27 corn imports at 3.5 million metric tons, down ‌170,000 tons from the previous year, including 1.2 million tons each from Brazil and Argentina and 900,000 tons from the US, with the remainder from other suppliers.

Global traders have been closely watching whether China will step up purchases of US agricultural goods after the two countries ⁠released ​a proposed tariff-reduction list covering corn, ⁠wheat, vegetable oils and meals, among other products. Corn has historically been among the highest-value US agricultural exports to China and could ⁠play a key role in helping Beijing meet the $17 billion purchase commitment that the White House said was agreed at the leaders' ​summit in May.

However, Zhang said US corn was not currently commercially viable, even under a 1% ⁠in-quota tariff, because import margins remained negative. A slide in his presentation showed that, using US Gulf ports as a benchmark, the theoretical import margin ⁠for ​corn delivered between November 2026 and March 2027 ranged from a loss of 15.52 yuan to 59.75 yuan ($2.32 to $8.93) per ton.

China's sorghum imports are projected at 8 million metric tons in 2026/27, up 550,000 tons from ⁠the previous year, Zhang said. Barley imports are expected to total 10 million tons, down 3.14 million tons year-on-year. Fourth-quarter ⁠corn arrivals are estimated ⁠at 400,000 tons, while sorghum arrivals are projected at 2.95 million tons, up 2.06 million tons from a year earlier. Barley arrivals are expected to reach 2.6 million tons.

($1 = ‌6.6937 Chinese yuan ‌renminbi)