ROI-AI jitters, Trump's fading oil clout and China shock 2.0: The financial week in five charts

Every Friday, Reuters Open Interest (ROI) distills the financial week into five key charts, spotlighting the major trends, surprises and overlooked ​moves that defined the past five days.

1. AI DOMINANCE JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: What goes ​up must ... keep going up? That has largely been the case for ‌AI-related stocks ​since OpenAI launched ChatGPT nearly four years ago. JPMorgan Private Bank's Michael Cembalest reckons AI-related stocks have accounted for 75% of S&P 500 returns, 80% of earnings growth and 90% of capital-spending growth since ChatGPT's November 2022 launch.

But the stock-market boom is not necessarily translating into an equally powerful economic one for the ‌US. And concerns are mounting over the scale of AI investment, how it is funded and whether it will ultimately deliver adequate returns. Perhaps what goes up must come down. Eventually. 2. DEBT STRAIN

ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% last month, faster than the 0.4% increase in August, bringing the 12-month rate to 3.7%, largely due to a 9.1% rise in gasoline prices. More worrying for markets, however, was the core ‌inflation reading, which strips out food and energy. It jumped 0.3% in September, slightly above economists' consensus forecast, driven by notable increases in housing costs and airline fares. This heightened concerns that US interest rates ‌will stay higher for longer as the Federal Reserve seeks to return inflation to its 2% target. That, in turn, caused investors to flee — or hedge — some of the more heavily indebted AI companies, which may struggle to generate enough cash to service higher debt costs. CoreWeave , the AI-focused cloud-computing firm, was among the biggest losers on Thursday. Its 5-year credit default swap surged past 1,100 basis points at one point, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, while the yield on the company's 2031 bond rose to as high ⁠as 16% ​before retreating.

3. DIMINISHING POWER RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: US ⁠President Donald Trump's trademark ability to talk down oil markets with a few words is fading as the Iran war drags on, leaving global energy prices far more exposed to escalation. The market's muted reaction to Trump's diesel deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin is ⁠the latest example.

This reflects a deeper problem. The loss of around 2 million barrels per day of refining capacity in Russia and the Middle East, and the sharp drawdown in global oil inventories since the start of the Iran war, ​have left energy markets in a precarious position that cannot be fixed through rhetoric or relatively small supply additions. 4. EXPORT BLITZ

MIKE DOLAN, ROI Finance & Markets Columnist: China's trade surplus widened more than ⁠expected in September as exports surged, stoking anxiety in Europe and elsewhere about a "China shock 2.0" as more of the country's goods flow into overseas markets. Strong demand for semiconductors and green-tech products has kept China's factories humming. Exports jumped 36% from a year earlier — the fastest pace ⁠since ​February — up from 25% in August and well above forecasts for 26% growth.

Import growth also beat expectations, but the trade surplus still reached $938 billion in the first nine months. It is now on track to top $1 trillion a month earlier than last year, adding to pressure on Europe to push for a stronger yuan and fairer competition. 5. ASIAN EDGE

GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: Oil supplies are recovering faster than ⁠fuel output in the Middle East, where several regional refineries remain offline after sustaining damage during the conflict with Iran. That bodes well for refiners in Asia, home to more refining capacity than any other ⁠region. The massive coastal complexes in India, China, South Korea and ⁠Singapore were built to receive crude oil in bulk and convert it into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel for global markets. If Middle Eastern crude exports continue to rise, Asian refiners appear well positioned to capture much of the value created by turning those barrels into the fuels that power the global economy.

Opinions expressed ‌are those of the authors. ‌They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, ​and freedom from bias. (By Anna Szymanski Editing by Marguerita Choy)