FACTBOX-The races that will decide control of the US Senate

Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats in November's midterm elections to wrest control of the US Senate from Republicans, with voter discontent over President Donald Trump, the Iran war and rising prices putting races in once-solidly Republican states into play. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and a Democratic takeover looked ​unlikely at the start of the year. But Democrats are now competitive in states Trump won handily in 2024, even as Republicans seek to capture Democratic-held seats of their own.

Here are the races that could determine control of ​the Senate: DEMOCRATS TARGET REPUBLICAN SEATS

ALASKA Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is up for reelection against Democratic former US Representative Mary Peltola and an outsider who shares Sullivan's name.

Alaska allows ‌voters to rank their ​top picks rather than choosing a single candidate. Voters will have four choices, including Sullivan, Peltola and the other Dan Sullivan, a candidate Republicans have called a decoy in what they believe is a Democratic effort to confuse voters. Trump's midterm travel this month included a stop in Alaska.

Peltola has outraised Sullivan through October, $33 million to nearly $14 million. But Sullivan reported having more campaign cash, $5.1 million to Peltola's $3.2 million, and Republicans have outspent Democrats, $42 million to $38 million. Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024, but recent opinion polls show Peltola narrowly leading Sullivan.

IOWA Trump's unpopularity, tariffs and the Iran war have put Republicans on defense in Iowa, where Trump won by 13 points in 2024.

Republican US Senator Joni Ernst's decision not to seek reelection has made this an open-seat contest between Republican US Representative Ashley ‌Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist. Hinson has called for an "immediate end" to the Iran war and said Iowans should not have to pay higher fuel or grocery prices as a result of it. However, she has repeatedly voted against resolutions in Congress calling for an end to the war.

Turek has outraised Hinson, $20 million to $14 million. But Hinson reported $3 million more cash on hand through September, and Republicans have outspent Democrats, $81 million to $70 million. Recent polls show Hinson with a narrow lead.

KANSAS The political environment has shifted in favor of Democrats so much that Kansas is now in play. Republicans have diverted resources from North Carolina to shore up US Senator Roger Marshall, who in recent weeks has condemned the activity of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in his state.

Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024, but the state has twice elected Democratic Governor Laura Kelly. And Republican leaders have acknowledged the race is competitive and closer than they would like it to be. Marshall's opponent is Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of a Methodist megachurch. Hamilton has outraised Marshall, $14 million to $6 million, and ‌reported more cash on hand, $3.2 million to $922,000, through September.

In a reversal of the usual pattern, Democratic groups have outspent Republicans in Kansas, $28 million to $22 million. The last time Kansas voters elected a Democrat to the US Senate was 1932. Most recent polls show Hamilton leading narrowly.

MAINE Democrats' top pickup opportunity to begin the cycle was in Maine, the lone state where a Republican incumbent is up for reelection in a state Trump lost in 2024.

Senator Susan Collins and her Democratic opponent, former Maine Senate President Troy ‌Jackson, were both joined on the campaign trail by big-name supporters last week. Collins stumped with former US Senator Joe Manchin, a West Virginia independent who left the Democratic Party in 2024, while Jackson held a town hall with US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York.

Manchin's joint appearance with Collins came after the senator distanced herself from Trump at a debate earlier this month, when Collins — who voted to convict Trump after he was impeached following the January 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol — acknowledged that she isn't the president's favorite senator and said he wouldn't be coming to Maine. Democrats say Collins only votes against Trump when it doesn't matter — such as when she voted against a sweeping tax-cut package last year after backing it in a procedural vote. Democrats also hope voters will hold her accountable for helping confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court, which led to the overturning of a federal right to abortion.

Democrats, however, have their own drama. The party's original nominee, progressive oysterman Graham Platner, was pressured into withdrawing following sexual assault allegations, forcing the state party to scramble for a new candidate. Platner denied the allegations. Jackson, another progressive, emerged as Platner's replacement, but he has drawn criticism for his treatment of women. He has said publicly he doesn't regret telling Collins to "shut up" at a ⁠recent debate. Jackson's female allies publicly defended ​his character and legislative record last week, when the Maine Women's Lobby endorsed him over Collins.

Jackson has outraised Collins by more than $1.6 million despite ⁠not entering the race until July. But Collins has a $1.1 million advantage in cash on hand as of mid-October. Republican groups have outspent Democrats, $76 million to $40 million. Recent polls show Jackson with a narrow lead or tied.

NORTH CAROLINA Republicans appear to have conceded North Carolina, where even Trump has suggested the Democrat will win.

At a campaign rally last week in Greenville, Trump told supporters it was "crazy" that former Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, was going to be their next senator. Trump won North Carolina by 3 points in 2024, but Republican Senator Thom Tillis' retirement made this year's Senate race an open contest.

Trump recruited former Republican National Committee Chairman ⁠Michael Whatley to succeed Tillis, but the ex-party official has been unable to compete with Cooper's fundraising, and Republican allies who invested heavily in holding North Carolina have begun shifting their focus to other states. Cooper has raised $50 million and has $9 million in the bank. Whatley has raised $14 million and has just $900,000 on hand through mid-October.

Recent polls have Cooper leading by double digits. OHIO

Democrat Sherrod Brown is seeking to return to the Senate after losing his seat in 2024, and working-class frustration with the Iran war and rising prices may be giving him a tailwind. This time, Brown faces US Senator Jon Husted, who ​was appointed to the Senate to replace US Vice President JD Vance when Vance left the Senate for the White House. The winner of the special election will be on the ballot again in 2028 for a full six-year term.

The Ohio race has become one of the most expensive Senate contests in the nation. Republican and Democratic outside groups have each spent nine figures on the race, with Republicans investing $232 million and Democrats pouring in $118 million. Brown has more than ⁠tripled Husted's fundraising through October 14, bringing in $68 million to Husted's nearly $20 million. Both campaigns reported having a little more than $4 million to spend as of mid-October.

Recent polls show Brown leading by 3 to 5 points. TEXAS

No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994. James Talarico, a state representative, could break the streak. Talarico faces Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in the big, conservative-leaning state that has dashed Democratic hopes repeatedly in recent years.

Trump won Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024. Yet Republican outside groups have already spent $300 million to hold the seat after runoff voters nominated the scandal-plagued Paxton over incumbent Republican US Senator John Cornyn. Trump endorsed Paxton even though Cornyn was ⁠widely believed ​to have an easier path to victory. Leaked audio has exposed daylight between Trump and Paxton, who privately told donors that the president's midterm convention hurt his campaign.

Democratic groups have spent $76 million on this race. But Talarico's campaign has outraised Paxton's by $110 million and reported $9.6 million more in its campaign coffers as of September 30. Paxton's donors include billionaire Elon Musk, who lives in Texas and has relocated SpaceX, Tesla, X and other businesses there. Musk has given $158 million to a Republican super PAC to invest in Paxton's race. Recent polls show Talarico narrowly leading or tied.

REPUBLICANS TARGET DEMOCRATIC SEATS GEORGIA

Georgia was one of two key pickup opportunities for Republicans at the beginning of the election cycle, as Trump won the state by 2 percentage points in 2024. But Republican US Representative Mike Collins has struggled to gain traction against Democratic US Senator Jon Ossoff, a potential 2028 presidential candidate. Ossoff has outraised Collins by nearly $126 million through October 14 and began mid-October with $15.1 million in his war chest compared to Collins' $1.1 million.

Polls have consistently shown Ossoff leading, and Democrats narrowly lead Republicans in ⁠outside spending, $19 million to $17.9 million. MICHIGAN

Republicans are more hopeful about flipping an open seat in Michigan, especially after the Democratic establishment didn't get its pick. Progressive outsider Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated moderate US Representative Haley Stevens during the primary, putting him on a collision course with Republican Mike Rogers, a former US representative, in what could be the tightest race for a Democratic-held Senate seat this year. Trump and former President Barack Obama campaigned in Michigan over the weekend.

A pro-Israel super PAC has spent at ⁠least $493,000 against El-Sayed, a follow-up to its $30 million effort to stop him from winning the Democratic nomination. The super PAC could spend as much as $9 million ⁠in the general election. El-Sayed's allies have also stepped up, with US Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont, and Ocasio-Cortez each putting $1 million behind his campaign.

El-Sayed has raised $45 million through September, more than double Rogers' nearly $21 million. But Rogers began October with more on hand, $6.5 million to $3.8 million. Republicans have poured $136 million into the Senate race in Michigan, where Democrats have spent more than $70 million.

Most recent polls show El-Sayed with a narrow lead. NEW HAMPSHIRE

Democrats are defending another open seat in New Hampshire, though this is a state then-presidential candidate Kamala Harris won by nearly 3 points in 2024. Democratic US Representative Chris Pappas is running against former US Senator John Sununu, who was ousted by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen in 2008. Shaheen is retiring.

Sununu benefits from a famous last name. His ‌brother Chris was governor until last year and his father — also named John — was a governor and ‌White House chief of staff for President George H.W. Bush. Pappas has raised four times as much as Sununu, $24 million to $6 million. Pappas has a modest $200,000 cash advantage, but Republicans have spent $37 million in the race to Democrats' $20 million.

Pappas has maintained a consistent polling lead of ​5 to 8 points in recent surveys.