AI, Ageing and Job Shortages: OECD Warns of a Major Workforce Crisis Across Rich Economies

An OECD study warns that persistent skill shortages in technology, healthcare and education, driven by ageing populations, AI and economic transformation, could threaten productivity and growth. The report urges governments and employers to strengthen workforce training, improve working conditions and modernise recruitment to bridge widening skill gaps.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has warned that growing shortages of skilled workers could threaten productivity, innovation and economic growth across advanced economies. In its 2026 report, Mapping Skill Shortages in OECD Countries: New Evidence from the Updated Skills for Jobs Database, researchers Marcela Veselkova and Isabel Skak Olufsen, working under the supervision of Glenda Quintini at the OECD's Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs, examine how technology, population ageing and changing economic priorities are transforming employment. Drawing on labour market evidence from 38 countries, the study finds a growing mismatch between the skills employers need and those workers have. While businesses struggle to recruit technology specialists, healthcare professionals and teachers, many people in routine and lower-skilled occupations face fewer employment opportunities.

Skilled Worker Shortages Threaten Economic Growth

Although labour shortages have eased since their post-pandemic peak, many countries continue struggling to recruit workers with specialised skills. The OECD finds that these difficulties increasingly stem from long-term economic and demographic changes rather than temporary recruitment problems.

Population ageing is one of the biggest challenges. The working-age population is projected to decline by approximately 8% across OECD countries by 2060, with reductions exceeding 30% in a quarter of member countries. As experienced workers retire, businesses could face increasing difficulties replacing them.

Technology is creating another challenge. Artificial intelligence, automation and digitalisation are changing the qualifications employers require. Workers with advanced technical knowledge are becoming increasingly valuable, while some traditional jobs face declining demand.

The report identifies information and communications technology (ICT) professionals among occupations experiencing significant shortages. In the United States, shortages of ICT professionals have intensified since the introduction of ChatGPT in 2022, reflecting continued demand for experienced technology specialists.

However, the situation differs across countries. Australia moved from shortages in 2021 to a surplus by 2025, while the United Kingdom also experienced a shift towards surplus. France and the United States continued reporting shortages, demonstrating how technological investment, labour supply and economic conditions influence recruitment.

Healthcare and Education Face a Growing Workforce Crisis

Healthcare is among the sectors most affected by persistent worker shortages. Rising demand for medical services, combined with ageing populations, is increasing pressure on hospitals, clinics and care providers.

The OECD reports that approximately 30% of healthcare workers are over 50, while fewer than 20% are under 30. This imbalance raises concerns about future retirements and the availability of trained professionals.

Difficult working conditions, demanding schedules and limited career incentives can make recruitment and retention more challenging. The report recommends expanding healthcare education, improving workplace conditions and creating opportunities for workers to enter healthcare through alternative training pathways.

Education faces similar pressures. More than 30% of teachers are over 50, compared with approximately 10% under 30. As experienced teachers retire, schools may struggle to find replacements.

Teacher shortages could affect educational quality and weaken the development of future workers. The OECD recommends attracting younger professionals, supporting people entering teaching as a second career and strengthening professional training.

AI and Automation Are Changing the Skills Workers Need

The study finds that technological transformation is increasing demand for workers who can solve problems, understand complex information and adapt to changing responsibilities.

Critical thinking, reading comprehension, communication, active listening and reasoning are among the abilities experiencing shortages. Employers also increasingly value interpersonal skills such as negotiation, coordination and persuasion.

Although programming and troubleshooting appear relatively balanced in the OECD's broad skills indicators, the report cautions that shortages in specialised technical occupations may remain hidden within these measurements.

Meanwhile, clerical workers, food preparation assistants, labourers and workers in routine sales occupations frequently experience employment surpluses.

Automation and artificial intelligence could further reduce demand for repetitive administrative tasks, increasing the importance of retraining and career transitions.

The green transition is also changing employment requirements. Investments in renewable energy, infrastructure and cleaner industries are creating demand for engineers, electricians, construction workers and other technical specialists.

However, difficult working conditions and limited career incentives can discourage people from entering some of these occupations, even when employers report recruitment difficulties.

Governments Must Rethink Education, Training and Recruitment

The OECD argues that reducing skill shortages requires coordinated action from governments, employers and educational institutions.

Education and vocational training systems must respond more quickly to changing labour market requirements. Workers also need affordable opportunities to update their skills throughout their careers.

The report recommends flexible qualifications, short training programmes, stronger career guidance and recruitment practices that recognise demonstrated abilities rather than relying exclusively on formal degrees.

Greater participation by underrepresented groups could also help address shortages. Women account for approximately 20% of ICT professionals and technicians in the relevant country sample, highlighting opportunities to expand recruitment.

International labour mobility could help countries fill critical vacancies, although recruiting healthcare professionals from countries already experiencing shortages could create additional problems.

Economic competitiveness will increasingly depend on how effectively countries prepare workers for changing employment demands. Without stronger investment in training, better working conditions and more inclusive recruitment, persistent skill shortages could limit productivity, weaken public services and slow future economic growth.