Weather Shift: From La Niña to El Niño

The U.S. Weather Forecaster CPC announces the transition from La Niña to ENSO-Neutral is complete. Expected shift to El Niño by May-July 2026 will likely bring above-normal temperatures across most of the U.S., with varied precipitation patterns affecting different regions.

The U.S. Weather Forecaster's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has officially declared the end of La Niña conditions, marking a transition to ENSO-Neutral status. This development sets the stage for an anticipated shift to El Niño by the summer of 2026, according to their latest observational data.

For the upcoming May-June-July 2026 period, a 61% chance of transitioning to El Niño is projected, with expectations it will persist until year-end. Forecasters predict above-normal seasonal temperatures across much of the contiguous United States, except for certain northern regions such as the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes.

Moreover, the outlook anticipates the highest probabilities (60-70%) of elevated temperatures in the Northern and Central Great Basin and Rockies. Meanwhile, below-normal precipitation is likely across parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern and Central Intermountain West, and Rockies, extending southeastward to Central Great Plains. In contrast, above-normal precipitation is expected in parts of Western Alaska, the vicinity of the Lower Four Corners, and most Atlantic Coast States into the Eastern Gulf Region.

(With inputs from agencies.)