Can Farmers Survive El Niño? IFAD Reveals a Stronger Way to Protect Food Supplies

During 2026, global energy and fertilizer shocks spread across food systems within a single planting season, increasing expenses for agricultural production, processing, transportation and distribution.

El Niño could ultimately cause economic losses reaching US$11 trillion worldwide, creating serious challenges for food security and agricultural communities already struggling with unpredictable climate conditions. A new analysis released by the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and Türkiye's Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry warns that the consequences of climate shocks can continue affecting food production, farmer incomes and rural economies for years. The findings highlight the urgent need to strengthen agricultural systems before extreme weather and economic disruptions threaten the livelihoods of millions of small-scale producers.

The report, titled Food Systems Under Stress: Building Resilience from the First Mile, examines how climate-related disasters and economic pressures can combine to disrupt food production and supply chains. El Niño is identified as one of several interconnected threats affecting agricultural communities, making it increasingly difficult for farmers to maintain production and protect their earnings. The analysis explains that strengthening rural economies requires coordinated investments in farming resources, modern technologies, financial services and reliable connections to markets.

During 2026, global energy and fertilizer shocks spread across food systems within a single planting season, increasing expenses for agricultural production, processing, transportation and distribution. These rising costs placed additional financial pressure on small-scale farmers, who collectively produce approximately one-third of the world's food and often have limited resources to absorb unexpected losses. IFAD's findings suggest that farmers become better prepared for future disruptions when agricultural support addresses several connected challenges rather than providing assistance in only one area.

Combining Agricultural Support Could Nearly Double Protection Against Shocks

The report identifies a coordinated investment approach that combines access to quality seeds, fertilizers, agricultural technologies, financial services and markets to help farmers withstand overlapping disruptions. IFAD President Alvaro Lario explained that investments become more effective when improvements in agricultural production are supported by reliable market opportunities and financial protection. Evidence from IFAD-supported investments shows that this combined approach has increased household incomes by more than 40 per cent, delivered reported gains for nearly all participating households and raised technology adoption by approximately 75 per cent.

IFAD's modelling demonstrates how the approach can protect farming incomes when drought and rising prices affect producers at the same time. Providing financial protection alone, such as agricultural insurance, can reduce farm-income losses by 9.8 per cent under these conditions, offering farmers some protection against unexpected disruptions. Combining financial services with improved agricultural inputs and market access increases the reduction in income losses to 18.7 per cent, delivering nearly twice the protection provided by a finance-focused intervention alone.

Farmers need more than access to credit or insurance because their ability to recover from agricultural shocks also depends on maintaining production and securing fair returns for their crops. Reliable irrigation, affordable farming materials and improved technologies can help reduce production difficulties, and stronger connections with buyers can protect the value of agricultural products during uncertain market conditions. The report describes these connected investments as essential for helping rural communities manage multiple pressures without losing the benefits of improvements made in individual areas.

Kenya and Bangladesh Show How Farmers Benefit From Connected Investments

In Kenya, IFAD-supported interventions combined training in fertilizer micro-dosing and agroforestry with better access to seeds, fertilizers, drought insurance and bulk grain buyers. This coordinated package helped farmers improve agricultural practices, strengthen their access to necessary resources and secure better opportunities to sell their produce. The combined support doubled farmers' resilience to drought, demonstrating how practical agricultural training and financial protection can reinforce each other during periods of severe climate stress.

Bangladesh provides another example of how investments addressing several agricultural challenges can improve rural livelihoods and reduce farming expenses. Farmers received support through solar-powered irrigation, vermicomposting training, access to credit and food-safety certification, helping them lower production costs and enter higher-value markets. These improvements contributed to a 50 per cent increase in household incomes, showing how cleaner technologies, financial services and better market opportunities can strengthen agricultural businesses.

Türkiye's Experience Highlights the Value of Preparing Farmers Before Crises

In Türkiye, financial grants were combined with solar-powered irrigation, greenhouse development, orchard establishment and improvements to agricultural market, storage and processing facilities. These investments helped farmers reduce water and energy costs, improve production conditions and strengthen the infrastructure needed to market their agricultural products. The programme contributed to a 40 per cent increase in farmers' incomes, providing evidence that investments across several areas can deliver substantial economic benefits for rural communities.

Türkiye's Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, İbrahim Yumaklı, emphasised that farmers' ability to withstand crises depends heavily on the support and resources available before disruptions occur. Access to water, affordable agricultural inputs, finance, insurance and dependable markets can help producers maintain their livelihoods when extreme weather or economic pressures threaten their operations. His comments reinforce the report's central message that preventing severe agricultural losses requires early investment in the systems farmers rely on every day.

The findings present climate resilience as a broader economic challenge that cannot be solved through agricultural technology, insurance or financial assistance operating independently. Governments, development institutions and agricultural investors can strengthen rural economies by designing programmes that connect food production, financial protection and market opportunities within the same investment approach. IFAD's analysis indicates that preparing farmers through coordinated support could help protect household incomes, strengthen global food security and reduce the lasting economic damage associated with increasingly interconnected shocks.