CAPA launches data models to project airline capacity in key markets

"The impact of COVID-19 has damaged the efficacy of traditional methods of understanding the future size and scale of our industry."Frustrated by the lack of a model that takes into account border closures and other key assumptions around the pace of recovery of domestic and international passenger markets, we set out to build our own model with the support of OAG,” said Derek Sadubin, Managing Director, CAPA.

Global aviation consultancy, Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) on Thursday said it has launched a series of interactive data models designed to provide future air capacity projection in key markets across the world. These data models have currently been launched in markets such as Australia, New Zealand and China, while for the other markets like India the process is under way, CAPA said in a release.

The models are an effective breakdown of each country's domestic and international outlook for seat capacity supported by the global travel data provider OAG, as well as each city and route pair – based on the 2019 actuals, CAPA said. "The impact of COVID-19 has damaged the efficacy of traditional methods of understanding the future size and scale of our industry.

"Frustrated by the lack of a model that takes into account border closures and other key assumptions around the pace of recovery of domestic and international passenger markets, we set out to build our own model with the support of OAG,” said Derek Sadubin, Managing Director, CAPA. Taking into account government statements, airline network announcements and capacity projections, these models provide a robust and granular guide for future air capacity projection, it said.

The data models are now available for Australia, New Zealand and China, and models for the UK, France, Germany, the USA, India, Japan, South Korea and other countries are on their way. Using assumptions around six key phases; zero/grounded, skeleton, acutely restricted, basic, restrained and standard, users can track the pace of recovery in their relevant market, CAPA said in the release.