Euro zone bond yields edge up as traders assess rate bets repricing

After touching its lowest since April 15 on Tuesday, Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, bounced higher, rising 4 bps to 2.46%. "With the recent move lower in yields, we would argue that we are coming close to the end of the rates rally," said Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies.

Euro zone government bond yields rose on Wednesday, after hitting multi-week lows this week, as markets assess the impact of investors increasing their bets on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank this year. After recent weak U.S. jobs data, money markets are pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year and around 45 basis points (bps) of monetary easing. Markets are also pricing in around 70 bps of ECB rate cuts in 2024.

Previously, a string of hot data had led investors to price in fewer than two Fed rate cuts for 2024, down from around seven at the start of the year. After touching its lowest since April 15 on Tuesday, Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, bounced higher, rising 4 bps to 2.46%.

"With the recent move lower in yields, we would argue that we are coming close to the end of the rates rally," said Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies. He added that even though Jefferies sees around 50 bps of potential Fed cuts this year, above the market consensus, it does not expect yields to move much lower.

"At current levels, we see more of a consolidation rather than a further move lower," Kumar said. On the data front, Italian retail sales remained stable in March from the month before, after rising 0.1% in February. German industrial production declined 0.4% in March, a smaller drop than the 0.6% fall predicted by analysts polled by Reuters.

"We continue to think that there are plenty of soft spots in the economic data, and traders should practice caution when being overly optimistic about things," said Naeem Aslam, Chief Investment Officer at Zaye Capital Markets. RIKSBANK CUT

Elsewhere, Sweden's central bank cut its key interest rate to 3.75% from 4.00%, as expected, and said it was likely to cut the rate twice more in the second half of the year if inflationary pressures remain mild. "The May cut was priced to some 80%, and hence the market reactions have so far been fairly muted," Danske Bank analysts said in a note.

Sweden's 10-year yield was last 6.5 bps higher at 2.4%. Italy's 10-year yield was 3.5 bps higher at 3.8%, and the gap between Italian and German bond yields widened to 133 bps.

Germany's two-year bond yield, which is more sensitive to ECB rate expectations, was up 2.5 bps at 2.93%.

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)