Global Trade Hits Record Value as AI Demand Drives 2025 Growth

While trade volumes stabilised, the US-dollar value of global merchandise trade reached an all-time high, reflecting rising prices and a weaker US dollar.

World merchandise trade levelled off at a high point in the third quarter of 2025, following a strong expansion earlier in the year driven by import frontloading, favourable macroeconomic conditions and surging demand for AI-related products.

While trade volumes stabilised, the US-dollar value of global merchandise trade reached an all-time high, reflecting rising prices and a weaker US dollar. On a seasonally adjusted basis, merchandise trade volumes grew 0.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter and 3.6 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. By contrast, trade values rose 7.5 per cent year-on-year, underscoring a widening gap between real and nominal growth.

Dollar depreciation played a role, with the US dollar down 1.9 per cent year-on-year against a broad currency basket in the third quarter, inflating the value of trade flows denominated in other currencies, including intra-European trade. However, import frontloading ahead of expected tariff hikes and booming AI-related demand were the dominant drivers.

For the year through September 2025, global merchandise trade volumes were up 4.5 per cent compared with the same period in 2024 — well above the 2.5 per cent growth forecast issued by the WTO Secretariat last October. Over the same period, the value of merchandise trade increased by 6.5 per cent year-on-year.

AI goods lead global trade expansion

Trade in AI-related goods — including chips, semiconductors and data transmission equipment — rose nearly 20 per cent year-on-year in value terms during the first three quarters of 2025. Although these products accounted for about 15 per cent of world merchandise trade, they contributed a striking 42 per cent of overall trade growth.

Trade in non-AI goods also expanded, rising 4.4 per cent year-on-year in value terms, supported by surging gold prices amid economic uncertainty, as well as strong demand for pharmaceuticals, particularly anti-obesity medicines and vaccine inputs.

Regional trade performance diverges

On the export side, Asia led growth with a 9.5 per cent year-on-year increase in volumes, followed by Africa (6.1 per cent) and South and Central America and the Caribbean (5.7 per cent). Exports also rose in the Middle East (5.3 per cent) and North America (2.3 per cent), while Europe (-0.3 per cent) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (-1.7 per cent) recorded declines.

Import growth was strongest in South and Central America and the Caribbean (13.2 per cent) and Africa (12.7 per cent), more than double the pace seen in Asia and the Middle East. North America’s imports grew 5.4 per cent, while Europe recorded more modest growth of 2.4 per cent.

Monthly data highlights AI-driven economies

Recent monthly trade data show particularly strong gains in Asian high-tech exporters, alongside more moderate growth elsewhere. The fastest export growth was recorded by Chinese Taipei (35 per cent), Switzerland (24 per cent) and Egypt (23 per cent), while larger economies such as the United States, European Union, China and Japan posted growth of around 5–6 per cent. Commodity-dependent economies, including the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan, experienced declines.

On the import side, sharp increases in economies such as Switzerland, Argentina and Viet Nam point to strong investment and demand for intermediate goods, while imports softened slightly in China and parts of Europe.

The latest data highlight a global trade landscape increasingly shaped by technology-driven demand, pricing effects and regional divergence, as economies adjust to evolving trade policies and structural shifts.

Policymakers and businesses are encouraged to closely monitor AI-driven trade trends and currency dynamics, as these factors are set to play an increasingly decisive role in shaping global trade flows.