Copper Tariffs Loom: A Market on Edge Again

The U.S. is once again on the brink of deciding whether to enforce tariffs on refined copper imports. This situation mirrors last year's tension when President Trump surprised markets by imposing tariffs on copper products but not refined copper. The CME premium over LME price is widening, indicating market apprehension.

The United States is approaching another critical juncture as the deadline to decide on the imposition of tariffs on refined copper imports looms at the end of the month. This uncertainty is causing fluctuations in the copper market, with the arbitrage between the CME’s U.S. duty-paid copper contract and the London Metal Exchange’s international price widening significantly.

Last year’s similar market tensions were alleviated when President Trump chose not to impose tariffs on refined copper, although duties were applied to other copper products. Now, with the potential for phased tariffs of up to 30% in the coming years, there is renewed volatility in the market.

U.S. copper imports saw a significant rebound in early 2026 despite earlier setbacks, indicating a strong, ongoing trade in the metal. The U.S. has also been building its strategic copper reserves, making the current situation critical for both domestic supply and global trade dynamics.