WRAPUP 5-Fed begins Warsh era by keeping rates on hold, sees one hike later this year

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, but nine officials now expect a hike by the end of 2026, amid growing concerns about inflation above the 2% target.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, but ‌policymakers ​expect a hike in borrowing costs later this year amid growing concerns about inflation lodged above the U.S. central bank's 2% target. New quarterly projections showed nine Fed officials now anticipate a hike in rates by the end of 2026, and an updated policy statement removed language that had been used to flag the likelihood of ‌further reductions in borrowing costs this year.

Indeed, the statement, in an early sign of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's influence, removed any guidance about future rate moves altogether, with a revised format that simply stated the rate decision and reaffirmed the central bank's intent to keep "ample reserves in the banking system." The shortened document, a return to a format similar to that used by former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, was approved by a unanimous 12-0 vote by ‌the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee.

Speaking in a press conference following the FOMC meeting, Warsh said the policy statement refrained from providing so-called forward guidance because it is not "well suited" to the current economic moment. When ‌it comes to the monetary policy outlook, "I can't give you any forward guidance about what we're going to do next. The good news is we'll be meeting in six weeks." The statement showed other signs of Warsh's early influence on the debate as he takes over after being appointed earlier this year by President Donald Trump with an expectation that he would deliver the rate cuts the president has demanded.

The description of the economy touched on issues Warsh has emphasized, mentioning that "productivity growth and capital investment are strong." While acknowledging that inflation was "elevated ⁠relative to the ​Committee's 2% goal," that development was assigned in part to "supply ⁠shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy." New projections show inflation slowing sharply next year, allowing rates to return to where they are now by the end of 2027 and easing modestly further in 2028.

"The Committee will deliver price stability," the ⁠statement said. Treasury yields rose after the release of the policy statement and projections. U.S. stocks fell modestly while the dollar gained ground against a basket of currencies. Short-term interest-rate futures are now pricing a bigger chance of a rate hike by September than a ​hold.

Warsh said in the press conference he was launching a series of task forces that will look broadly at central bank operations, from how it communicates, uses its balance sheet, what data it uses ⁠as well as its framework for dealing with inflation. MISSING DOT

Only 18 of 19 policymakers submitted rate projections for the so-called "dot-plot" chart released by the Fed, and while the missing "dot" is not identifiable, Warsh said in the press conference he did not provide a dot. Warsh also cautioned against ⁠reading ​too much into the dots. "I reviewed the dot plots, and when I saw the submissions, I noted that all the submissions were coming in with pencils, you know, those kinds with the big erasers," he said.

The statement marks a turning point not just in leadership at the central bank but in a monetary policy outlook that since the fall of 2024 had been geared to lower borrowing costs from the elevated rates ⁠used to help tame inflation that hit 40-year highs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Projections among officials showed the policy interest rate, which has been set in the 3.50%-3.75% range since last December, would rise by a quarter ⁠of a percentage point by the end of this year.

The outlook ⁠for inflation for the end of 2026 was marked up to 3.6% from 2.7%, before it is seen falling to 2.3% next year, all without a rate increase - consistent with the statement language attributing high prices to supply disruptions that would typically be expected to pass. Economic growth was marked down slightly, with the unemployment rate ‌expected to end the year at ‌4.3%, compared to 4.4% in the Fed's March projections.