AI Boom Lifts Global Goods Trade as Middle East Conflict Hits Travel and Services

WTO economists now expect merchandise trade volume to grow by 3.9% in 2026, more than double their March forecast of 1.9%, followed by 4.1% growth in 2027.

Strong spending on artificial intelligence and the ability of suppliers to keep goods moving have given global trade a bigger boost than expected in 2026, even as the Middle East conflict disrupts energy supplies, shipping and international travel. The World Trade Organization's latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, released on 8 October, shows an uneven picture in which demand for semiconductors and servers is supporting goods trade, with tourism and transport facing greater pressure.

WTO economists now expect merchandise trade volume to grow by 3.9% in 2026, more than double their March forecast of 1.9%, followed by 4.1% growth in 2027. The forecast for commercial services trade volume has been reduced to 3.3% from 4.8%, with a recovery to 6.4% projected next year. Global GDP is expected to increase by 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, providing the economic backdrop for trade growth that remains vulnerable to the conflict's effects.

New Suppliers and AI Demand Keep Goods Moving

Merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5% in the first half of 2026 as businesses found alternative suppliers and redirected shipments through different ports and transport corridors. Middle Eastern crude oil exports fell roughly 24% and liquefied natural gas exports dropped 47%, but increased deliveries from elsewhere limited the decline in global exports to around 6% for crude oil and 1% for LNG. Those adjustments helped soften a supply shock affecting products essential to households, industry and electricity generation.

Fertilizer trade showed a similar capacity to adjust, with global imports of nitrogenous fertilizers only 2.8% below recent averages and phosphatic fertilizer imports 2.2% higher as alternative suppliers filled gaps. Global container throughput rose 3.9% in the year through July, suggesting that the disruption had not stopped the wider movement of goods. Higher energy prices and interruptions to transport routes are expected to continue weighing on trade during 2026.

Demand for AI-enabling goods, including semiconductors and servers, accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in the first half, with trade in these products rising 67% year-on-year after rapid expansion in 2024 and 2025. The WTO says this demand more than offset the conflict's negative effects on goods trade. Global AI infrastructure spending is projected to rise by at least 30% in 2026, with market projections pointing to another 10–20% increase in capital expenditure in 2027. A dedicated chapter examines how the boom is reshaping regional specialization and the geography of supply and demand.

Travel and Transport Feel the Conflict's Strain

Commercial services trade increased by 14% year-on-year in value terms in the first quarter and 10% in the second, a slowdown linked to disruption in transport and travel. These figures measure trade value, separately from the report's volume forecasts. The Middle East's importance as a shipping and aviation hub has exposed both sectors to reorganized routes, sharply higher freight costs and more expensive energy, with reduced travel demand adding to the pressure.

Travellers' spending abroad grew just 5% year-on-year in the second quarter, down from 15% in the first. Reports from the United Nations World Tourism Organization show that international tourist arrivals fell 0.8% in the second quarter, leaving arrivals only 0.4% higher across the first half overall. Transport and travel services are expected to achieve only modest growth this year, reflecting the difficulties facing businesses that depend on reliable connections and people's willingness to travel.

Digitally delivered services have provided a steadier source of growth, with computer services exports increasing 18% year-on-year in the first quarter and an estimated 12% in the second. Financial services exports grew 14% in the second quarter, helping support the broader services sector. These results show how differently the disruption is affecting businesses, with services delivered across digital networks proving more resilient than activities dependent on physical journeys.

Regional Forecasts Reveal Unequal Gains

Asia is forecast to lead merchandise export growth in 2026 at 9.9%, followed by North America at 5.7%, Africa at 5.6% and South America at 3.4%. Europe's exports are projected to fall 0.1%, the Commonwealth of Independent States' exports 3.9% and the Middle East's 17.2%. Import growth is expected to reach 9.5% in Asia, 8.9% in Africa and 8.8% in the CIS, compared with 1.4% in North America and 0.5% in Europe; Middle Eastern imports are forecast to shrink 15.4%.

Europe is expected to lead services export growth at 4.6%, contributing more than half of the global increase, followed by Asia at 4.0% and Africa at 3.1%. North America and the CIS are each forecast to grow 1.7%, with South and Central America and the Caribbean at 1.3%; Middle Eastern services exports are projected to contract 10.3%. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala described the figures as evidence of trade's resilience, stressing that an integrated, rules-based system helps essential products reach businesses and households.