IMF projects 7 pc growth for India, Piyush Goyal hails forecast

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday projected India's economy to grow by 7 per cent in both FY27 and FY28, while warning of a fragile global economic outlook, rising inflation, geopolitical uncertainties and mounting fiscal pressures across major economies.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday projected India's economy to grow by 7 per cent in both FY27 and FY28, while warning of a fragile global economic outlook, rising inflation, geopolitical uncertainties and mounting fiscal pressures across major economies. The projection, released in the IMF's October 2026 World Economic Outlook, was welcomed by Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal, who said India's free trade agreements (FTAs) would further strengthen global economic activity and resilient supply chains.

The IMF projected global growth to slow from 3.5 per cent in 2025 to 3.1 per cent in 2026 before recovering to 3.4 per cent in 2027. “The global economy remains resilient, but that resilience is becoming more fragile and more uneven,” the Fund said.

India, however, is expected to remain among the fastest-growing major economies, supported by stronger-than-expected economic momentum, resilient domestic demand and robust services activity. Reacting to the forecast, Goyal said in a post on X, “UNSTOPPABLE INDIA! IMF has projected a 7% GDP growth for 2027 for Bharat, making us among the fastest growing major economies. Our multiple FTAs under PM @NarendraModi ji are also expected to positively contribute to global economic activity and build resilient supply chains.”

On global inflation, the IMF projected an increase to 4.7 per cent in 2026, driven by higher energy and food prices, before easing to 4.1 per cent in 2027. It warned that prolonged conflict or further escalation in the Middle East could keep commodity prices elevated, revive inflationary pressures and weaken economic growth.

“Risks are skewed to the downside,” the report said. The IMF also cautioned that global trade growth could slow amid tariffs, supply-chain adjustments and geopolitical disruptions, despite support from technology-related investment and trade.

It flagged the possibility of a sharp reassessment of artificial intelligence-related investment returns, which could trigger equity market corrections and tighten financial conditions. Separately, the Fund raised concerns over deteriorating fiscal conditions, noting that public debt remained elevated and fiscal deficits in several major economies were significantly higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Rising borrowing costs, alongside spending pressures related to ageing populations, climate change and national security, have further reduced governments' ability to respond to fresh economic shocks. The IMF called for “strong and deliberate actions” to rebuild fiscal buffers and strengthen resilience, warning that the room for policy adjustments was narrowing. While India's growth outlook remains relatively strong, the Fund's broader assessment highlighted increasing vulnerabilities in the global economy from persistent geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures and limited fiscal space.

Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis also hailed the forecast made by IMF. "India Defies the Odds! The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) October 2026 World Economic Outlook projects India’s economy to grow by 7.0% in both 2026 and 2027, making us among the fastest growing major economies. Under the visionary leadership of Hon PM Narendra Modi Ji, India continues to emerge as a driving force of global growth despite ongoing global economic uncertainties," he wrote on X.

Union Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat also hailed the projections. "Under the visionary leadership of Hon’ble PM Shri @narendramodi ji, India continues to demonstrate remarkable economic resilience and strong growth momentum amid global uncertainty. The IMF projects India’s GDP to grow at 7.0% in both 2026 and 2027, even as global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 amid rising inflationary pressures. This reflects India’s growing economic strength and its expanding role in the global economy. India continues to advance towards a Viksit Bharat, driven by reforms, investment and sustained economic growth under Hon’ble PM Modi ji’s leadership," he said.

Keralam BJP president Rajeev Chandrasekhar said the projections are a result of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "incredibly deft management of the economy". "India's economy has never been stronger and more resilient. Today the IMF has upgraded India's growth forecast to 7% for 2026-27, far outpacing the fragile global average of 3.1% This is no accident. It is the direct result of PM @narendramodi ji's incredibly deft management of the economy during the pandemic, the biggest challenge of his 25 years in governance. We rightly thank him for how he managed the Covid health crisis. Not many understand how incredibly well he also handled the economic challenge, steering India through the storm and to calmer seas. Since Covid, almost every major economy has seen its public finances worsen," he said.

Slamming the opposition, Chandrasekhar added, "India is one of the few whose finances and economic activity are back near pre-Covid levels. No other major economy, not the USA, not China, not Europe, is where India is While the opposition stays fully invested in creating chaos and anarchy at home, the Modi government continues to build a stronger, more resilient India. Meanwhile, spare a thought (or not) for the political frauds who called India's economy dead. These types of results are beyond the comprehension of lazy, clueless, inept, entitled, dynastic leaders and their cronies." (ANI)