Solar Today, Wind Tomorrow: South Africa Rethinks Skills for Its Changing Energy Economy

South Africa is racing to turn its renewable energy investments into employment opportunities, but shortages of skilled technicians, electricians and grid engineers threaten to widen the gap between clean energy expansion and workforce readiness. Backed by a $1 million African Development Bank grant, a new skills development initiative aims to enable 100,000 green jobs by 2030 while connecting coal-dependent communities, young workers, women and local businesses to the emerging green economy.

South Africa's push towards cleaner electricity is entering a more demanding phase, where the success of renewable energy investment will increasingly depend on the availability of skilled workers, local businesses and employment opportunities. A partnership between the African Development Bank Group and the National Business Initiative (NBI) is seeking to bridge this divide through targeted training, labour-market forecasting and regional skills development.

At the Green Livelihoods Summit in Johannesburg on October 13, 2026, the institutions announced progress under the Just Energy Transition Skilling for Employment Programme (JET SEP), supported by a $1 million African Development Bank grant through the Fund for African Private Sector Assistance. The initiative aims to connect the expansion of clean energy infrastructure with economic opportunities for young people, women and communities exposed to the decline of coal-dependent industries.

The programme carries an ambition to enable 100,000 green jobs by 2030. Yet the challenge extends beyond the number of positions potentially generated. South Africa must ensure that workers possess the qualifications employers require, training reaches regions facing economic disruption, and smaller businesses can participate in investments reshaping the country's energy system.

Renewable energy investment is advancing faster than workforce readiness

South Africa's energy transition presents a difficult employment equation. Expanding renewable electricity generation creates demand for construction workers, electrical specialists and technical personnel, but the geographical distribution and timing of those opportunities may not correspond with the existing workforce.

Employment requirements are estimated at 120,000 to 200,000 jobs by 2030, highlighting the scale of the challenge confronting training institutions and employers. The figures also underline why investment commitments cannot be treated as equivalent to employment outcomes, particularly when specialised technical capabilities remain scarce.

Skills modelling under JET ATLAS, an interactive dashboard forecasting municipal-level labour supply and demand, indicates that solar energy will dominate workforce requirements until 2030, followed by stronger demand associated with wind energy. Between 2030 and 2040, construction labourers are projected to account for approximately 45% of demand, compared with 16% for technicians.

These projections reveal an important characteristic of the emerging green economy: much of its workforce will come from established occupations rather than entirely new professions. Electricians, welders, construction workers and technicians will remain central, although their deployment increasingly depends on the requirements of renewable energy technologies and infrastructure projects.

Research under Powering Futures 2.0 identifies shortages involving globally certified technicians, electrical artisans and grid engineers. Such gaps could constrain recruitment even where developers require additional workers, creating a mismatch between expanding investment and the country's capacity to convert demand into accessible employment.

Hence, the skills challenge concerns both occupational preparation and timing. Training aligned with today's electricity projects may not fully anticipate tomorrow's requirements, while delayed qualifications could leave workers unable to access opportunities when infrastructure development accelerates.

Coal communities face a different transition from renewable energy developers

The geographical concentration of South Africa's coal industry complicates the employment transition. Mpumalanga, which hosts approximately 80% of the country's coal plants, faces particular exposure as energy investment shifts towards alternative technologies and economic activities.

For communities historically connected to coal generation, renewable energy development does not automatically provide equivalent livelihoods. Opportunities may emerge in different locations or require qualifications that existing workers do not possess, leaving a difficult gap between industrial restructuring and workforce adaptation.

Economic diversification is consequently central to the proposed response. Wind energy, climate-smart agriculture, agro-processing, tourism and hospitality have been identified as possible avenues for broadening livelihoods in Mpumalanga, indicating that employment planning must extend beyond electricity generation itself.

Local enterprises represent another crucial dimension. Large infrastructure projects may create commercial opportunities, but participation depends on whether smaller firms can secure contracts and develop capabilities relevant to emerging markets. Without stronger connections between investment and enterprise development, economic benefits could remain concentrated among established businesses.

NBI Chief Executive Shameela Soobramoney has called for clearer signals from employers, more coordinated funding, greater contracting opportunities for small businesses and common measures of progress. These priorities reflect the difficulty of connecting separate investment, training and employment decisions within a coherent transition strategy.

Women and young people are also explicit priorities within the African Development Bank's approach. However, expanding their participation requires more than identifying them as intended beneficiaries. In the long run, the programme's effectiveness will depend on accessible training pathways, employer recruitment and opportunities that translate into sustained economic participation.

A $1 million skills initiative now faces its implementation test

JET SEP is attempting to address these challenges through an institutional framework linking government, development finance and business. The NBI has been mandated by the Just Energy Transition Project Management Unit in the Presidency to mobilise private-sector support for the skills chapter of South Africa's Just Energy Transition Implementation Plan.

A central component is the creation of Skills Development Zones, intended to connect regional training provision with enterprise development and local employment priorities. Following endorsement of a feasibility study by the Department of Higher Education and Training, launches are scheduled for Nkangala on October 29, the Northern Cape on November 18 and the Eastern Cape in March 2027.

These zones could help address uneven regional demand, although their establishment alone will not demonstrate success. Evidence of progress will require training participation, relevant qualifications, employer engagement and measurable connections between skills development and actual jobs.

Two further studies, Building an Inclusive and Responsive Skills Ecosystem for a Just Energy Transition and Powering Futures 2.0: Two Years of Progress, Learning and Opportunity, are scheduled for formal launch at COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye. Their findings are expected to contribute to the broader discussion on aligning skills systems with economic opportunities.

The next stage will test whether workforce forecasts influence investment decisions, regional training programmes respond to employer requirements, and local enterprises gain meaningful access to emerging industries. The distinction between enabling employment and delivering verified jobs will become increasingly important as the 2030 ambition approaches.

South Africa's experience illustrates a wider development challenge embedded within energy transition planning. Cleaner electricity infrastructure can generate demand for labour and investment, but inclusive economic outcomes depend on the institutions connecting those opportunities with workers and businesses.