149 Million Connected, 398 Million Waiting: The Growing Divide in Off-Grid Solar Access

Off-grid solar now reaches 149 million people worldwide, expanding electricity access while powering businesses, livelihoods and essential services. Yet a new World Bank Group and GOGLA report exposes a critical paradox: although solar is the cheapest electricity solution for at least 398 million people without power, millions of households still cannot afford it, leaving a $11.4 billion investment challenge between technological potential and universal access.

Off-grid solar is expanding rapidly across underserved communities, reaching 149 million people as governments increasingly recognize decentralized electricity as essential infrastructure. Yet the sector's growing reach exposes a persistent economic contradiction: the cheapest electricity option for hundreds of millions remains financially inaccessible to many households. Closing that divide will require substantially greater investment, targeted subsidies and stronger integration of distributed energy into national electrification strategies.

The Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report 2026, released by the World Bank Group's Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and GOGLA at the Global Off-Grid Solar Forum and Expo in Kigali, records a 26% increase in people reached by affiliate-market products between 2023 and 2025. Behind this expansion lies a broader transformation in how electricity is supplied, financed and used beyond conventional power networks.

Electricity Access Is Becoming an Economic Infrastructure Question

Solar home systems, lanterns, water pumps and generators are increasingly supporting activities that depend on consistent electricity, including farming, retail operations, household enterprises and essential public services. Electricity access is consequently becoming more closely connected with economic participation rather than being measured only through household connections.

An estimated 7.4 million people now use off-grid solar technologies to operate microenterprises or undertake income-generating activities. Across 15 years, these products have generated an estimated $28 billion in additional customer income and savings. Such figures indicate that decentralized electricity can create economic value beyond the immediate benefits of lighting and basic household power.

Employment within the industry reinforces its expanding economic footprint. The surveyed affiliate market employs approximately 219,000 people, while full-time employment increased 29% between 2021 and 2025. Many workers are community-based sales agents and technicians, illustrating how electricity distribution also creates local employment associated with product delivery, installation and technical support.

Product durability offers another indication of the sector's development. Among surveyed customers, 95% reported that their solar home systems remained operational at least four years after purchase. Although customer-reported functionality does not establish universal performance, the finding supports the growing recognition of off-grid solar as lasting infrastructure rather than merely temporary electricity provision.

Such durability becomes particularly relevant when households finance equipment through instalment-based arrangements. Systems capable of operating over several years provide a stronger foundation for continued electricity use, while their economic value increasingly depends on the activities they support. The sector's long-term prospects thus involve both expanding connections and sustaining their usefulness.

Mission 300 Puts Decentralized Energy at the Centre of Electrification

Off-grid solar's growing institutional recognition is particularly visible in sub-Saharan Africa, where governments and development partners are pursuing ambitious electricity access targets. Mission 300, the initiative led by the World Bank Group and African Development Bank, aims to connect 300 million people to electricity by 2030, combining conventional networks with distributed renewable energy solutions.

Distributed renewable energy features in the connection targets of 80% of the 35 National Energy Compacts developed under Mission 300. Meanwhile, 70% of the compacts in sub-Saharan countries include fiscal incentives for decentralized renewable technologies. These commitments indicate that off-grid electricity is increasingly being incorporated into formal national energy planning.

The policy direction reflects an important distinction between extending grid infrastructure and achieving electricity access. Off-grid solar is identified as the least-cost solution for at least 398 million people currently without electricity, while also complementing grid and mini-grid investments. National electrification strategies consequently have a substantial role for systems operating independently of centralized networks.

Financing commitments, however, reveal the distance between policy recognition and implementation. World Bank Group commitments to off-grid solar reached $974 million during fiscal years 2025–2026, matching the amount recorded in 2023–2024. Despite growing adoption and stronger institutional recognition, this major source of public funding has not increased across the two periods.

Governments now face the task of translating energy compacts into functioning affordability programmes and investment mechanisms. Fiscal measures such as value-added tax exemptions and import duty waivers can reduce costs, while public financing can encourage private participation. Their effectiveness ultimately depends on whether lower costs translate into products that underserved consumers can purchase.

The $11.4 Billion Financing Gap Between Potential and Access

Affordability remains the clearest constraint on off-grid solar's expansion. Only one-third of households without electricity can afford an entry-level Tier 1 solar home system through pay-as-you-go financing, while another third could purchase one only with considerable financial strain. The figures expose the limitations of treating technology costs and household purchasing capacity as equivalent.

Pay-as-you-go arrangements reduce the burden of upfront expenditure by allowing customers to spread payments over time. Yet financing flexibility cannot fully overcome restricted household budgets. Even where solar represents the least expensive electricity solution, its purchase can remain difficult without additional financial assistance.

Reaching off-grid solar's estimated electricity access potential by 2030 will require approximately $11.4 billion between 2027 and 2030. Annual financing requirements include roughly $1.3 billion in grants and affordability subsidies and $1.6 billion in equity, debt and receivables financing. The distinction highlights why consumer support and commercial investment must advance together.

The required investment is modest compared with estimated global annual energy transition needs of $3 trillion to $5 trillion by 2030. Nevertheless, the challenge concerns directing sufficient resources toward populations whose limited ability to pay constrains conventional market expansion. Rising customer numbers alone cannot demonstrate that electricity is reaching the most financially excluded households.

The next phase of electrification will therefore test whether public funding, private capital and national policies can reduce the distance between technological affordability and household affordability. Off-grid solar has demonstrated substantial reach, durability and economic usefulness. Its contribution to universal electricity access will depend increasingly on whether those advantages become accessible to the hundreds of millions still living without power.