NITI Aayog, TIFAC report predicts 72% penetration of electric two-wheelers by 2031

Using a tool made by NITI Aayog and TIFAC, eight scenarios have been developed for analyzing the future penetration of electric two-wheelers in the country.

NITI Aayog and TIFAC launched a report titled 'Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India', on 28 June.

Using a tool made by NITI Aayog and TIFAC, eight scenarios have been developed for analyzing the future penetration of electric two-wheelers in the country.

In an optimistic scenario, the report forecasts 100% penetration of electric two-wheelers in the Indian market by FY 2026–27. In another scenario, which is technology driven and where current incentives are withdrawn by 2024, the report predicts 72% penetration by 2031.

During the launch of the report, NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant said, "This report provides a much-needed tool to the industry, researchers, academicians, and policymakers to analyze and respond to various scenarios. It can be replicated easily in other segments too, such as four-wheelers, without any hassle."

The eight scenarios considered are:

Challenged Diffusion

Performance Driven

Low Battery Cost

Technology Driven

Incentive Driven

Battery Cost Challenged

Same Performance

Optimistic

The future scenarios have been constructed on the basis of three major factors that influence the market penetration of electric two-wheelers: (i) demand incentives (ii) cost of battery (iii) vehicle performance in terms of both range and power.

Four broad constraint levels have also been identified for the eight scenarios, in terms of installed vehicle manufacturing capacity and available charging infrastructure: (i) full constraint (where both vehicle production and charging infrastructure are constraints) (ii) production constraint (where only vehicle production is a constraint) (iii) charge constraint (where only the charging infrastructure is a constraint) (iv) no constraint.

(With Inputs from PIB)