Ivory Coast expects cocoa output to rise 10.5% in 2025/26 season, regulator says

A Reuters poll of traders and analysts issued in March had a consensus forecast for the Ivory Coast cocoa ‌crop to reach 1.8 million tons in 2025/26. CCC Director Yves Brahima Kone told Reuters, in an interview conducted on Wednesday, ‌that high cocoa prices over the past two seasons have enabled cocoa farmers to buy and use more fertiliser and improve how they manage their plantations, boosting output.

Ivory Coast expects cocoa production to ​reach between 2 and 2.1 million metric ​tons in the current 2025/26 season which runs ‌through ​to the end of September, up 10.5% from last season, the head of the Coffee and Cocoa Council (CCC) said.

That would be the first rise in output for the ‌world's largest cocoa producer in three seasons, after production fell sharply due to adverse weather, ageing plantations and the rapid spread of swollen shoot disease. A Reuters poll of traders and analysts issued in March had a consensus forecast for the Ivory Coast cocoa ‌crop to reach 1.8 million tons in 2025/26.

CCC Director Yves Brahima Kone told Reuters, in an interview conducted on Wednesday, ‌that high cocoa prices over the past two seasons have enabled cocoa farmers to buy and use more fertiliser and improve how they manage their plantations, boosting output. "We currently stand at just over 1.7 million tons as of May 11, in terms of cocoa arrivals at the two ports," said ⁠Kone. "This ​is a positive trend when ⁠compared to the last two seasons."

A Europe-based cocoa trader said large volumes of cocoa remain unsold in Ivory Coast. "There is still so much cocoa on ⁠the ground, but (Ivorian exporters) did not want to (sell) before the market went up, plus farmers did not want to sell at the cheaper ​farmgate price," the trader said.

Recent selling from Ivory Coast could make the size of the surplus more visible in ⁠European warehouses in the coming weeks, the trader added. NEXT SEASON

Turning to prospects for next season, Kone said survey teams returning from the bush reported pod ⁠survival ​rates slightly below the same period last year, with flowers and young pods taking 33 weeks to develop into mature pods. “We have concerns about the end of this season, but above all about the start of the next main ⁠season. The counts do not show a situation similar to or better than last year’s,” he said.

Three pod counters and five ⁠farmers told Reuters cocoa fields ⁠currently had fewer pods and flowers after drought caused some damage. “We’re keeping a close eye on current weather conditions and that’s causing us a great deal of concern, especially for next year,” ‌said a pod ‌counter. (Additional reporting by May Angel. Editing by Ayen Deng ​Bior, May Angel and Susan Fenton)