ROI-Paris jitters, oil battles and a Bolsonaro-fuelled Brazil rally: The financial week in five charts

Every Friday, Reuters Open Interest (ROI) distills the financial week ​into five key charts, spotlighting the major trends, surprises and overlooked moves that defined the ​past five days. 1. FRENCH FRACTURE

MIKE DOLAN, ROI Finance & Markets Columnist: ‌A ​surge of market anxiety over France's budget deficits and upcoming elections has seen French government borrowing rates and risk premia versus Germany rise to levels not seen since the heat of the euro crisis in 2011. This has weighed on other euro sovereign spreads and banking stocks while ‌also sending the euro to an 18-month low against the dollar. A euro crisis redux with France at its centre would be expected to elicit a major European Central Bank response to contain spillovers and insulate the single currency. But a looming leadership change at the top of the central bank could complicate that process and potentially raise the bar for action.

2. INFLECTION POINT? JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: The ‌big question in markets right now is whether we may be at, or near, an inflection point. The spiking "term premium" is one example, as it threatens to slam both stocks and ‌bonds.

The term premium is the estimated level of extra compensation investors demand in return for buying long-dated Treasuries over short-term debt. What's pushing it higher remains an open question: growing doubts about Federal Reserve credibility, fears of US debt debasement, or something else entirely. But whatever the cause, the central concern is whether it keeps rising. If it does, that may signal some serious economic and market problems ahead.

3. LET THE BATTLE COMMENCE RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: Middle East oil producers have ⁠launched a battle ​to recapture market share lost during the Iran war. ⁠The scramble to recover lost customers is becoming a defining feature of the post-blockade market. Gulf producers, eager to replenish state coffers after more than seven months of disruption, are increasing exports while some producers, including Iraq and Saudi Arabia, ⁠have offered deep discounts to buyers willing to load cargoes inside the Gulf.

But will this tussle for market share result in dramatically lower prices at the pump? Probably not as long as getting oil through Hormuz ​remains risky, unpredictable and expensive. 4. BOLSONARO BOOST

JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: That rumbling beneath emerging market investors' feet may be the first tremors of what could be a political ⁠earthquake in Brazil. Right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro — son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who in 2025 was convicted of plotting a coup to remain in power after losing the 2022 election — did much better than expected in the first round of voting ⁠in ​Sunday's presidential election. From a financial markets viewpoint, at least, the verdict is clear: investors seem pleased with the potential turn to the right. The sizzling rally in Brazilian assets and the real on Monday says it all. 5. SERIOUSNESS DEFICIT?

ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: Most US voters believe the Trump administration, Congress and AI companies are not taking AI risks seriously enough, according to a ⁠new Reuters/Ipsos poll. AI risks have become a hot-button US political issue amid workers' fears about job security, local opposition to data centers and even warnings from AI labs that the technology could pose ⁠an existential threat to humanity.

President Donald Trump has ⁠continued to double down on support for what he calls "Super Intelligence" and the data-center infrastructure it requires, arguing that the US cannot afford to fall behind China in this tech race. With the midterm elections approaching, that support could become a liability for Republican candidates in tight races. Opinions expressed ‌are those of the authors. They ‌do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, ​independence, and freedom from bias.

(Editing by Marguerita Choy)