MORNING BID EUROPE-Fragile calm after AI whiplash

A look at the day ahead in European and global ​markets from Jiaxing Li It has been an upbeat ​start to the week, with ‌Asian ​shares rebounding and US equity futures edging higher, after the Democrats' sweeping midterm elections victory set off a chaotic week of AI-trade unwinding and ‌whiplash.

Markets appear to be calming somewhat after Wall Street managed to end on a higher note on Friday. Dip buyers may have been encouraged to step back in ahead of a relatively light week for ‌major macro events. Still, it would be too early to say markets are out of ‌the woods - the fragile optimism will be put to the test by more tech earnings this week, including from cloud-computing firm CoreWeave, which has become a poster child for investor concerns about AI profitability amid massive build-out costs and a heavy debt ⁠burden.

Applied Materials ​and Cisco Systems ⁠are also due to release earnings this week. Nvidia's launch of a board probe into reports that CEO Jensen Huang was ⁠the target of a Chinese intelligence effort could add another layer of volatility to the AI trade's shaky recovery ​attempt. Beyond AI, Tuesday's US CPI report will also be in focus after the jobs report ⁠last week blew past estimates and showed resilient growth in the US labour market. That bolstered the case for the Federal ⁠Reserve ​to hike rates next month, with markets now pricing in an 80% chance of at least a 25-basis-point increase.

Oil markets, meanwhile, are offering some relief, with prices calming after US President Donald ⁠Trump said on Sunday he was highly unlikely to order fresh attacks on Iran as long ⁠as talks to end the ⁠conflict continued to make progress. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

- German trade data for September - Euro zone Sentix index for November

- ‌French and ‌German debt auctions