Leftist Lula's election victory in Brazil's election not necessarily a setback for far-right globally: experts

The outcome of the landmark Brazilian elections - in which left-leaning Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, also known as ''Trump of the Tropics'' because of his right-wing credentials – does not necessarily reflect a global trend among democratic countries, experts here feel.

Lula, 77, the South American country's president from 2003-2010, was immediately congratulated by US President Joe Biden, who praised the outcome, saying the win came ''following free, fair and credible elections''. The close election outcome marks an about-face for the country after four years of far-right politics.

Brazil's electoral authorities announced a narrow win for Lula in the run-off of the presidential election in which the former president secured 50.9 per cent of the valid votes against Bolsonaro's 49.1 per cent.

Bolsonaro, 67, is yet to concede publicly. But his chief of staff Ciro Nogueira last week said that the ''process of transition'' of power would begin.

Commenting on the election outcome in Brazil, US experts feel that it may not necessarily be a setback for the far-right globally.

''I would be reluctant to draw a broader trend from such a small sample size,'' Milan Vaishnav, director and senior fellow, South Asia Program of the prestigious Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank, told PTI when asked about the results of the Brazilian elections and also the defeat of right-wingers in recent elections in the United States in 2020.

The results signal ''the deep divide" that Lula will confront as president, according to The New York Times. ''His victory also pushes Brazil back to the left, extending a string of leftist victories across Latin America, fuelled by a wave of anti-incumbent backlash.

''Six of the region's seven largest countries have now elected leftist leaders since 2018," the daily wrote. But does this have any signal for the two largest democracies of the world -- India where the elections are scheduled for 2024 and the United States, which is having its mid-term polls on Tuesday and the presidential elections in 2024 -- is the question. American experts are reluctant to jump to a definitive conclusion right now.

''A new right-wing government has come to power in Italy, the Republicans are poised to gain seats in the US midterm election,'' Vaishnav argued, predicting the return of Israel's right-wing in power.

Former Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu-led coalition of right-wing parties secured a comfortable majority in the parliament elections last week.

''Even the Brazilian results show, at best, a deeply divided country with the Bolsonaro faction nearly eking out a victory," he said.

''In India, the fact is, no party right now poses a grave threat to the BJP on a pan-Indian basis. It is much too early to sound the death knell of conservative forces around the world," Vaishnav said in response to a question.

Author of several thought-provoking books on Indian politics and its internal dynamics, Vaishnav through his multiple years of research is seen as an authoritative voice on Indian democracy and its broader political trend. Aparna Pande, research fellow and director, Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia at the prestigious Hudson Institute think-tank, broadly agreed with Vaishnav. ''The right-wing, nationalist and populist trend globally has faced a pushback in some countries – the United States, Israel, Australia, and Brazil – but it is still strong in other countries – Hungary, Turkey – and it has made a comeback in others – Italy and Sweden,'' Pande told PTI.

''A large part of the appeal of right-wing populist-nationalism was the promise of returning to the 'old days' not just on the social (or religio-cultural) front but also on the economic front," she said. ''While right wing populist leaders may have delivered to some extent on the first, they have been unable to deliver on the second. It is worth noting that the socio-economic devastation caused by Covid was worse in countries led by right wing populist-nationalist parties, than in those led by either centrists or those on the left," Pande said in response to a question. The average person may be willing to give leaders some time to deliver on their promises but at the end of the day the leaders and parties need to deliver on the economy and especially on jobs. Populist-nationalist leaders have historically found it difficult to deliver on that front, she argued.

''Global governance will become easier at some level as populist-nationalist leaders historically have sought to push back against globalisation and champion protectionism," Pande said. The popular Time magazine wrote that many world leaders will welcome Lula's return.

''During his first term, Lula played an influential role in global politics, often serving as a broker between Western governments and their rivals. That may prove helpful in an era where diplomatic efforts to establish international cooperation on the climate crisis are increasingly urgent," it said.