Shifting Power Dynamics in the European Parliament: What’s at Stake?

EU citizens will vote on June 6-9 to elect 720 European Parliament members. As the only directly elected EU body, its decisions impact laws and policies for 450 million people. Polls suggest a rise in eurosceptic parties, possibly influencing key policies and the next EU budget.

European Union citizens will vote on June 6-9 to choose the 720 members of the next European Parliament, who will serve for five years. Most EU countries hold the election on June 9, but the Netherlands votes on June 6, Ireland and the Czech Republic on June 7 and Malta, Slovakia and Latvia on June 8. WHY IT IS IMPORTANT The European Parliament is one of the three EU institutions that run the 27-nation bloc. Together with EU governments, it decides on laws, proposed by the European Commission, that govern policies and the EU market of almost 450 million people. It does not wield as much power as the Commission or the member states' national governments. But it can reject or substantially amend legislation and, as the only directly elected EU institution, its pronouncements have political clout.

EXPECTED POWER SHIFT IN THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT Polls suggest the main pro-EU groups around the political centre - the centre-right, centre-left, Greens and liberals - will have a smaller majority than they currently enjoy, while the far right will make gains.

The polls predict the centrist groups will win around 450 seats in the 720-member chamber. That compares with 491 seats in the outgoing parliament, which has 705 members. The parties that formed the populist far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group in the last parliament are projected to gain ground, rising from around 58 seats to 80 or more.

Those parties include the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the National Rally of France's Marine Le Pen and the Lega party of Italy's Matteo Salvini. The group decided

on May 23 to expel the AfD over remarks by a party leader about the Nazi SS force. Another eurosceptic and populist group, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), dominated by Poland's former ruling PiS party and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy, may rise from 68 to around 80 seats.

INFLUENCE ON KEY POLICIES The projected rise in eurosceptic lawmakers would not stop the EU in its tracks. But it may make it more difficult to push through policies that give the EU more power or share resources within the bloc. This might affect the parliament's stance on policies identified by EU leaders as priorities for the next five years including:

- The EU's transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. While many of the EU's policies to curb CO2 and methane emissions are already in place in the form of the Green Deal package, some of the laws have reviews coming up in the next five years and pushing through new laws might be tougher.

- Industrial policy to keep the EU competitive against China and the United States. While EU officials argue that a united front gives Europe the best chance of competing with the world's two biggest economies, eurosceptic parties often oppose such an approach, arguing national sovereignty must come first.

- An EU energy union to lower energy prices and make supply more stable. Scarred by the experience of excessive dependence on Russian pipeline gas deliveries, EU countries want to find alternative energy suppliers, expand storage and build out trans-European networks to send electricity across borders. But views differ on how far to go. - A Capital Markets Union to mobilise private money to pay for EU priorities.

EU countries have been trying for 10 years to harmonise laws to make it easier to invest in securities across borders and finance companies in this way. But national vested interests have prevented progress. More eurosceptic and nationally-oriented MEPs will not help advance this goal. - Boosting the EU's defence production capabilities.

EU officials argue the bloc needs more joint financing, development and coordination of defence projects, traditionally the domain of national governments. Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows the EU must work together to defend itself, they say. But the issue is highly contentious and would have a tougher time in a more eurosceptic European Parliament. INFLUENCE ON TOP EU JOBS EU leaders take into account the election result when they choose the head of the European Commission, the executive arm that has exclusive power to propose new EU laws.

The centre-right European People's Party is forecast to come first in the election, giving it a strong claim on the post. Its candidate for the Commission presidency is the incumbent, Germany's Ursula von der Leyen. INFLUENCE ON EU MONEY The next European Parliament will co-decide with EU governments on the next EU budget for 2028-2034. The current seven-year budget is around 1.1 trillion euros ($1.18 trillion).

The next long-term budget might be increased and certainly will have to change in terms of spending priorities to take into account the possible enlargement of the EU to include Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans. INFLUENCE ON FUTURE SHAPE OF EU

EU officials and governments say the bloc needs to reform its internal agriculture policy and the way it supports its members to equalise standards of living before it admits new countries, especially big ones such as Ukraine. Many also say the EU needs to change how it makes decisions, reducing the need for unanimity, if more countries are to join.

If such reforms are proposed in the next five years, the parliament will have a crucial role to play in shaping them.

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)