Tropical Depression to Impact Florida: Potential Coastal Flooding and Heavy Rain Forecast

A tropical depression over Cuba is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Debby, bringing heavy rain and coastal flooding to Florida's Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm to reach the Atlantic Ocean by early next week, with significant rainfall predicted for parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.

A tropical depression over Cuba is growing better organized, forecasters reported Saturday, potentially bringing heavy rainfall and coastal flooding to much of Florida's Gulf Coast.

The storm, which strengthened into a tropical depression late Friday, is anticipated to evolve into a tropical storm by Saturday night, potentially being named Debby. This development marks the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, indicating maximum sustained winds of 39 mph (63 kph) or higher.

Circulation was centered just south of Cienfuegos, Cuba, on Saturday morning, while associated wind and thunderstorms spread over a broad area, including southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas. Sustained winds of 30 mph (48 kph) were reported in the Florida Keys island chain on Saturday morning. The National Hurricane Center in Miami predicts the depression will strengthen as it curves northward off the southwest Florida coast. Warm water temperatures, approaching 92 degrees Fahrenheit (33 Celsius), could further fuel the storm.

Current predictions indicate the system may come ashore as a strong tropical storm late Sunday or early Monday, crossing over northern Florida into the Atlantic Ocean. It is likely to remain a tropical storm threatening Georgia and the Carolinas early next week. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for most of Florida's west coast and the Dry Tortugas, with a hurricane watch in effect for parts of the Big Bend region.

Flat Florida, prone to flooding even during sunny days due to king tides, is predicted to encounter storm tides of 2 to 4 feet (0.6 to 1.2 meters). Higher tides of 3 to 5 feet are forecasted for the Big Bend region. The storm could lead to significant river flooding, overwhelming drainage systems. Forecasters warn of 5 to 10 inches (125 mm to 250 mm) of rain, potentially causing considerable flash and urban flooding. Moderate river flooding is also anticipated.

Additionally, some of the heaviest rainfall may occur next week along the Atlantic Coast from Jacksonville, Florida, through Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina. People in Florida cities have begun filling sandbags for potential flooding. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for most counties, extending from the Florida Keys through Central Florida and the Tampa Bay region up to the western Panhandle.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Carlotta is moving westward off Mexico's western coast with top sustained winds of 90 mph (145 kph). The National Hurricane Center expects Carlotta to weaken by Sunday, dissipating into thunderstorms in three to four days. No watches or warnings are currently in effect.