IMD Predicts Below-Normal Monsoon: Impact of El Niño Looms

The India Meteorological Department predicts a below-normal southwest monsoon for India this year. With an expected 80 cm rainfall, influenced by El Niño conditions, Dr. M Mohapatra explains shifting climate patterns. Despite challenges, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may balance rainfall in the latter half of the season.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced a below-normal southwest monsoon for India this year. Expected rainfall is around 80 cm, less than the usual 87 cm. This prediction points to the potential impact of El Niño conditions emerging by June, affecting precipitation levels nationwide.

At a press conference, Dr. M Mohapatra, the Director General of Meteorology at IMD, shared the forecast details, stating that rainfall might be 92% of the long period average with a model error margin. El Niño, known to reduce rainfall, and transitioning changes in Pacific climatic conditions, contribute to this forecast.

Nevertheless, the situation might improve later in the season due to the potential development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which could enhance monsoon rainfall. Dr. Mohapatra also noted slightly below-average snow cover in the northern hemisphere, indicating complex yet interconnected climatic effects on India's monsoon.

(With inputs from agencies.)