El Niño Threatens 162 Million Children as Africa Faces Growing Climate Emergency

“The threat from El Niño is growing, and the risks for children are already clear,” said Etleva Kadilli, UNICEF Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa.

More than 162 million children across Eastern and Southern Africa are living in places exposed to the strengthening 2026/2027 El Niño, placing over two-thirds of the region's children at risk from drought, extreme heat, destructive flooding and the humanitarian crises these conditions can trigger. UNICEF says weather forecasts have created a small but vital opportunity to protect families before hunger rises, water sources fail, schools close and preventable diseases spread through communities.

"The threat from El Niño is growing, and the risks for children are already clear," said Etleva Kadilli, UNICEF Regional Director for Eastern and Southern Africa. She warned that food and water insecurity, strained health services and disrupted education are already affecting children, leaving families and essential public systems with little capacity to absorb another major climate shock.

Thirteen countries face overlapping threats to children

UNICEF has identified urgent risks in Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Many communities in these countries are still coping with conflict, displacement, poverty, disease outbreaks and earlier climate disasters, meaning a failed rainy season or severe flood could quickly turn an existing struggle into a life-threatening emergency.

Somalia could face flooding that directly affects as many as 2.5 million people under the most severe scenario, forcing families from their homes and cutting children off from food, healthcare, clean water and education. Tens of thousands of children in Ethiopia are likely to be affected, especially in areas already experiencing severe food insecurity. Drought, intense heat and localized flooding in South Sudan could worsen malnutrition, increase disease outbreaks, deepen famine risks and drive large-scale displacement.

Children often carry the heaviest burden during climate emergencies because their bodies are more vulnerable to dehydration, hunger and infectious diseases. Families losing crops, livestock or income may be unable to pay for transport, medicine or school supplies, and displaced children can face greater exposure to violence, exploitation, family separation and psychological distress.

Early action could stop forecasts from becoming tragedies

Less than one per cent of international humanitarian assistance is currently available for anticipatory action, even though early intervention can save lives, reduce emergency costs and protect years of development progress. UNICEF is urging donors and governments to release flexible funding before El Niño reaches its most damaging stage, giving local teams enough time to move supplies, strengthen services and prepare communities.

Priority measures include expanding early screening and treatment for malnutrition, pre-positioning therapeutic food and essential medical supplies, reinforcing disease surveillance, supporting vaccination campaigns and securing access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene services. Schools need stronger infrastructure and safe alternative learning spaces so children can continue their education when floods, heat or displacement make classrooms unusable.

Child protection services also require additional support, including family tracing, reunification assistance, psychosocial care and measures that reduce the risk of gender-based violence. Early-warning information can be linked with anticipatory cash assistance and government-led social protection programmes, allowing vulnerable households to buy food, water, medicine and other essentials before conditions become desperate.

UNICEF seeks $173 million before the crisis deepens

UNICEF urgently needs US$173 million through its existing 2026 Humanitarian Action for Children requirements to provide anticipatory and life-saving assistance across the 13 priority countries. The agency says early and flexible financing is crucial because emergency supplies, trained workers and protective services must be in place before roads become inaccessible, health facilities are overwhelmed, or families are displaced.

Acting before visible images of suffering appear also offers major financial value. Every US$1 invested in disaster risk reduction can save up to US$15 in future recovery costs, making early intervention both a humanitarian responsibility and a practical use of limited resources.

"We know what is coming, which children are most at risk and how to protect them," Kadilli said. "The choice is whether the world responds now, or waits until the crisis escalates, and children pay an even greater price."