CSIR to Deploy Advanced Election Prediction Model for 2024 General Elections

The CSIR's prediction model is based on two core principles: analyzing voter behavior patterns and the sequence in which voting results are reported on Election Day.

The Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) will once again utilize its sophisticated election prediction model for the upcoming 2024 National and Provincial Elections in South Africa. This model, first introduced during the 1999 General Elections, will be in operation when South Africans head to the polls on 29 May 2024.

The CSIR's prediction model is based on two core principles: analyzing voter behavior patterns and the sequence in which voting results are reported on Election Day. By combining these principles, the model groups voters or voting districts according to past voting behavior through a statistical clustering method.

Historically, the model has demonstrated a high degree of accuracy at a national level, typically achieving stable predictions once approximately 5% of the results have been tallied. As more voting districts are counted, the predictions become increasingly precise.

CSIR Chief Executive Officer, Dr. Thulani Dlamini, emphasized that the model is not a polling system but rather a statistical and mathematical tool designed to predict election outcomes. “It showcases how statistical clustering and mathematical algorithms can generate accurate predictions from a small sample of results,” Dlamini explained. The model mitigates bias arising from the non-randomness of incoming results, which depends on the order of result announcements.

The CSIR's predictive modeling capabilities extend beyond elections and can be customized for other forms of predictive analysis. As a unique tool on the continent, the CSIR is also capable of assisting other countries in enhancing election transparency and engagement.

“The organization boasts strong capabilities in mathematics and statistics, which are applied to deliver precise results and can be tailored for various predictive analysis and forecasting needs,” added Dlamini.

The CSIR, under the Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovation, is one of Africa's leading scientific and technological research, development, and implementation organizations. It conducts multidisciplinary research and technological innovation to improve the quality of life for all South Africans.