Africa’s digital boom masks deeper infrastructure divide

Africa is narrowing part of the global digital divide, but the gains remain uneven and fragile.

Africa is narrowing part of the global digital divide, but the continent's progress remains uneven and heavily shaped by older infrastructure, investment limits and regulatory capacity, according to research published in the MDPI journal Technologies. The analysis shows that African countries are moving along a shared digital development path, even as national differences continue to shape how quickly that progress reaches households, firms and public services.

The study "The Future of Africa's Digitalisation: Evidence from Phillips–Sul Convergence Clubbing and Predictive ML Models" examines digitalisation trends across 123 countries, including 38 African economies, from 1990 to 2023. Using Phillips–Sul convergence testing and Random Forest machine learning, the research tracks whether countries are catching up digitally and which technologies are driving Africa's digital transition.

Africa is catching up, but not as one digital bloc

The data shows African economies are increasingly following similar digital development patterns. Africa's adjustment speed was estimated at 2.5624, more than three times the Global South average of 0.8394, pointing to a faster narrowing of digital gaps within the continent than across the broader group of developing economies.

Digital infrastructure is now linked directly to economic competitiveness, public service delivery, education, healthcare, trade and financial inclusion. Countries with stronger digital systems are better positioned to support online services, mobile payments, e-commerce, remote learning and data-driven industries. Those with weak connectivity risk falling further behind as global growth becomes more dependent on digital access and digital skills.

Notably, Africa's progress does not amount to full parity with advanced economies. The continent is converging within its own development group, not moving at the same pace toward the global digital frontier. The countries are becoming more aligned with each other while still facing a larger structural gap with regions that have deeper infrastructure, stronger institutions and higher levels of digital investment.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains at the bottom of the regional digitalisation rankings in the analysis. Its average digitalisation index stood at -0.98, compared with 0.81 for Europe and Central Asia, 0.53 for North America and 0.29 for East Asia and the Pacific. The lower score confirms that the region started from a weaker baseline and continues to face major barriers in connectivity and infrastructure.

A lower standard deviation for SSA, however, points to steadier regional movement rather than highly uneven progress concentrated in only a few economies. The pattern supports a more balanced reading of the continent's digital transition.

Africa is advancing, but from a low base. The global digital divide gives the findings wider importance. Digital inequality is no longer measured only by whether people can get online. It also reflects affordability, internet quality, device access, skills, competition in telecom markets, institutional readiness and the capacity of governments and businesses to use digital systems productively. Africa's challenge lies across all these layers.

The analysis built a digitalisation index using fixed telephone subscriptions, mobile cellular subscriptions and internet access. This approach allowed the authors to assess digital infrastructure as a combined process rather than through one isolated indicator, providing a more layered view of how African countries are advancing and where the gaps remain.

Internet and mobile adoption are converging, while fixed-line systems expose a structural divide

Across the full sample and all regional groups, countries moved toward a common steady state in internet access. In Africa, that means internet adoption is spreading in a way that brings countries closer together, even though access levels still vary widely by income, geography and infrastructure quality.

Mobile cellular technology also shows strong convergence across most regions, including Africa. This reflects the central role of mobile networks in the continent's digital expansion. In many countries, mobile phones have helped bypass slower and more expensive fixed-line expansion, giving millions of people access to communication, banking, commerce and public services.

Mobile connectivity has been especially important where traditional landline systems never reached large parts of the population. Through mobile money, mobile internet and app-based services, African economies have used wireless networks to move more quickly into digital participation. This leapfrogging effect has become one of the defining features of the continent's technology story.

Fixed telephone infrastructure presents a more complex result. Unlike internet access and mobile subscriptions, fixed telephone lines show clear divergence across regions and within Africa. Countries are not moving toward a shared level of fixed-line adoption. Instead, they are moving further apart.

Fixed telephone lines are widely seen as legacy technology, especially as governments and telecom operators shift investment toward fibre, mobile broadband, satellite connectivity and next-generation networks. In many markets, the fixed-line era has effectively been overtaken by mobile-first development.

The machine learning results complicate that view. Random Forest analysis identified fixed telephone infrastructure as the strongest driver of Africa's digital diffusion process, ranking above internet access and mobile cellular technology in predictive importance. This does not mean fixed lines are the future of African digitalisation. It means older infrastructure still acts as a foundation for broader connectivity in many countries.

That finding reveals a policy tension. The infrastructure that helped support Africa's digital spread is also the one receiving uneven and declining attention. Countries with stronger legacy networks may have a better base for broadband expansion, while countries with weaker foundations may struggle to scale newer technologies quickly.

Digitalisation here follows a phased process. Countries begin with basic infrastructure, invest in newer technologies, enter catch-up phases and eventually consolidate digital systems across the economy. Advanced economies are already moving deeper into artificial intelligence, 5G and other high-end technologies. Many African countries are still focused on expanding reliable broadband, improving mobile coverage and reducing access costs.

This explains how Africa can show internal convergence while still lagging globally. Countries may be moving in the same direction, but they are not starting from the same place. National outcomes remain shaped by public investment, private-sector capacity, human capital, regulatory quality and the strength of existing infrastructure.

Absorptive capacity is therefore central. Building networks is not enough if countries lack the skills, institutions and market conditions needed to use them. Digital progress requires telecom competition, effective regulation, affordable access, technical education and public systems that can turn connectivity into real economic and social gains.

Why it matters for policy

Digital policy should not treat infrastructure as a single category. Mobile networks and internet access are central to the continent's future, but older fixed-line systems should not be ignored where they still support broadband expansion and network reliability. A balanced infrastructure strategy is needed. Governments should avoid abandoning legacy systems too quickly if those systems still provide the backbone for internet connectivity. At the same time, investment must accelerate in fibre, mobile broadband, satellite networks and high-speed connectivity, especially in rural and underserved communities.

Regional coordination also becomes more important. Since the analysis shows club-specific convergence rather than one global convergence path, African countries may gain more from coordinated regional strategies. Harmonised spectrum rules, lower roaming costs, cross-border data frameworks and shared digital markets could help countries advance together.

Such coordination would also allow lower-income countries to learn from faster-moving peers in mobile payments, broadband rollout and digital public services. Instead of building fragmented systems country by country, regional blocs can reduce duplication, attract investment and create common standards.

Affordability remains another major policy test. Infrastructure growth will not close the digital divide if households and small businesses cannot afford data, devices or digital services. Competitive telecom markets, fair pricing, lower barriers to entry and targeted support for underserved users will be essential.

Human capital must move closer to the center of digital planning. The research shows that digitalisation depends on a country's ability to absorb and apply technology. That requires digital literacy, technical training, science and engineering education, and a workforce able to use digital tools in productive sectors.

The stakes are high for African economies. Digital systems now influence tax collection, agriculture, trade, health, education, financial access, disaster response and job creation. Countries that strengthen digital foundations can improve public services and raise productivity. Those that lag may face deeper inequality and weaker competitiveness.

Better measurement is also crucial. Subscription numbers alone do not show whether people have meaningful access to digital services. Policymakers need to track internet speeds, reliability, affordability, cybersecurity readiness, digital skills and the spread of emerging technologies.

The research acknowledges limits in the available data, including reliance on World Bank indicators and the exclusion of countries with major data gaps. Future work could add more measures of internet quality, data prices, artificial intelligence adoption and 5G readiness, while testing results through additional machine learning models.