Left Menu
Development News Edition

China's Q3 GDP set to show broadening recovery as consumers resurface

The world's second-largest economy likely grew 5.2% in July-September from a year earlier, faster than the second quarter's 3.2%, according to a Reuters poll. China releases third-quarter GDP data on Monday at 0200 GMT, along with September factory output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment.

Reuters | Beijing | Updated: 19-10-2020 04:30 IST | Created: 19-10-2020 04:30 IST
China's Q3 GDP set to show broadening recovery as consumers resurface

China's economic recovery stepped up in the third quarter, data released is expected to show on Monday, as consumers returned to malls and major trading partners reopened for business, shaking off the record slump seen earlier this year. The world's second-largest economy likely grew 5.2% in July-September from a year earlier, faster than the second quarter's 3.2%, according to a Reuters poll.

China releases third-quarter GDP data on Monday at 0200 GMT, along with September factory output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment. Policymakers globally are pinning their hopes on a robust recovery in China to help restart demand as economies struggle with heavy lockdowns and a second wave of coronavirus infections.

"China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response," said analysts from Capital Economics. However, they warned a renewed slowdown is likely from late 2021 as stimulus fades. China's retail spending has lagged the comeback in factory activity as heavy job losses and persistent worries about infection kept consumers at home, even as restrictions lifted.

However, that is expected to have changed in the third quarter. In September, auto sales marked a sixth straight month of gains with a solid 12.8% growth and Ford Motor Co's China vehicle sales jumped 25% in the third quarter from a year earlier.

Domestic passenger flights in September, meanwhile, beat their COVID-19 levels, indicating that sector was approaching a full recovery. The COVID-19 pandemic, which caused China's first contraction since at least 1992 in the first quarter, is now largely under control, although there has been a small resurgence of cases in the eastern province of Shandong.

Year-on-year forecasts by 51 analysts polled by Reuters ranged from 2.5% to 7.2%. On a quarterly basis, GDP is expected to have grown 3.2% in July-September compared with a rise of 11.5% in the previous quarter.

The government has rolled out a raft of measures, including more fiscal spending, tax relief and cuts in lending rates and banks' reserve requirements to revive the virus-hit economy and support employment. Analysts polled by Reuters expect industrial output to grow 5.8% in September from a year earlier, quickening from a 5.6% rise in August, while retail sales were seen rising 1.8%, versus a 0.5% rise in August.

POLICY SUPPORT While the central bank stepped up policy support earlier this year after widespread travel restrictions choked economic activity, it has more recently held off on further easing.

"Because of the ongoing growth recovery but still strong headwinds, we expect Beijing to maintain its 'wait-and-see' policy approach through the remainder of this year," said analysts at Nomura in a note this week. The International Monetary Fund has forecast an expansion of 1.9% for China for the full year, the only major economy expected to report growth in 2020. ($1 = 6.7236 Chinese yuan)

Also Read: Famous Chinese web novel Lord of the Mysteries a smash hit at Bangkok International Book Fair


TRENDING

OPINION / BLOG / INTERVIEW

New farm bills in India: Focusing on farms or farmers?

... ...

Kenya’s COVID-19 response: Chaos amid lack of information

Confusing numbers and scanty information on how effective curfews and lockdowns have been in breaking transmission have amplified coordination and planning challenges in Kenyas response to COVID-19. Without accurate data, it is impossible t...

Farkhad Akhmedov: Calculating the price of impunity from the law

In insistences such as the battle over the Luna, Akhmedov has resorted to extreme legal machinations to subvert the High Courts decision and keep his assets from being seized. ...

Guinea’s elections hearken back to the autocracy and violence of its past

... ...

Videos

Latest News

Motor racing-Petrov replaced as Portuguese GP steward after bereavement

Russian Vitaly Petrov has been replaced as a Portuguese Grand Prix steward due to a personal bereavement, Formula Ones governing body said on Saturday.The RIA Novosti agency reported earlier that Petrovs father Alexander had been shot dead ...

Tennis-Humbert outlasts Evans to set De Minaur clash in Antwerp final

Frances Ugo Humbert saved four match points against Briton Dan Evans in the European Open semi-final as he came from behind to win 4-6 7-67 6-4 on Saturday, setting up a title clash with eighth seed Alex de Minaur. After dropping the openin...

Yemeni cancer clinic hit by heavy weapons, MSF says

A cancer clinic in the Yemeni city of Taiz was hit by heavy weapons on Saturday, with one staff member injured, medical charity Doctors Without Borders MSF said. The Saudi-backed Yemeni government blamed the attack on the Houthi movement, w...

Afghan forces kill senior al Qaeda leader al-Masri who was on FBI most wanted list

Afghan security forces have killed Abu Muhsin al-Masri, a senior al Qaeda leader who was on the Federal Bureau of Investigations Most Wanted Terrorists list, Afghanistans National Directorate of Security NDS said in a tweet late on Saturday...

Give Feedback