West Africa’s Invisible Food Economy: Why 85% of Regional Trade Is Missing From the Data

West Africa’s intra-regional food trade is estimated at nearly USD 10 billion annually, with up to 85% unrecorded, leaving governments with an incomplete picture of markets, food security and regional economic activity. Better harmonised trade data could improve policymaking and food-security planning while revealing major opportunities for development partners and private investors in finance, logistics, infrastructure and regional value chains.

West Africa's food trade is far bigger and more important than official statistics suggest. An OECD/Sahel and West Africa Club (OECD/SWAC) report estimates that as much as 85% of intra-regional food trade goes unrecorded, leaving nearly USD 10 billion in annual trade largely invisible to governments, investors and development institutions. Official statistics capture only around USD 1.5 billion.

The findings matter because governments rely on trade statistics to shape agricultural policies, assess food security, negotiate regional agreements and decide where infrastructure and public investment should go. Incomplete data can therefore lead to policies based on an inaccurate picture of regional markets.

A $10 Billion Market Hidden in Plain Sight

The scale of under-recording is striking. Actual intra-regional food trade is estimated to be around six times higher than official figures and comparable to West Africa's combined imports of rice, wheat and palm oil from outside the region.

The problem is especially severe for basic foods. Around 97% of maize, 96% of millet, 95% of cassava, and 88% of cowpea trade is estimated to go unrecorded. Across broader categories, about 95% of the starchy-root trade, 84% of cereals, and 72% of vegetables are unrecorded.

This changes the economic importance of entire sectors. Official statistics suggest that Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger together export only about USD 81 million in livestock within the region each year. The estimated actual value is around USD 1.05 billion.

The regional fresh-tomato market provides another example. Official data put imports at around USD 30 million annually. Including unrecorded trade raises the market to approximately USD 111 million, with Nigeria accounting for about 32% and Burkina Faso 14%.

Why Missing Trade Data Matters for Governments

Poor measurement can distort decisions on agriculture, trade, investment and food security. West Africa's wider food economy represents roughly 40% of regional GDP and about two-thirds of employment, with an estimated value of USD 260 billion. Leaving a major share of regional food commerce outside official statistics can therefore affect national accounts, trade balances and assessments of economic performance.

Food security is particularly important. Around 68 trillion kilocalories are estimated to move through regional trade each year, enough to meet the annual energy needs of approximately 80 million people. Yet more than three-quarters of these food flows remain unrecorded.

Between 2018 and 2020, FAO Food Balance Sheets showed no millet imports among West African countries. Evidence on unrecorded trade, however, identified approximately 190,000 tonnes moving through regional markets. For cassava, official figures similarly recorded no imports, while informal-trade estimates identified about 393,000 tonnes.

Such gaps can make it harder for governments and development agencies to accurately identify food shortages, surpluses and dependence on neighbouring markets.

An Investment Case for Development Partners and Business

The report suggests that measuring this trade is technically possible and relatively affordable. Benin monitored roughly 200 informal crossings for about USD 800,000. The regional ECO-ICBT programme operated across 14 West African countries for around USD 1 million annually, although its coverage was more limited.

For international development partners, the priority is therefore to move beyond short-term surveys towards sustainable national and regional systems. Support could focus on digital customs systems, regular informal-trade surveys, stronger statistical agencies, common regional methodologies and better information sharing between customs authorities, central banks and national statistical offices.

The findings also reveal opportunities for businesses. An OECD/SWAC survey of more than 3,000 traders found that 83% operated informally, but their businesses were not necessarily small. Median monthly revenue was approximately USD 13,000, while average monthly turnover among traders in the upper quartiles reached about USD 143,000.

Around 40% of traders identified access to loans as a constraint, while 38% cited security, 30% transport infrastructure and 20% market information. These gaps could represent opportunities for banks, fintech companies, logistics providers, warehouses, insurers and digital market-information services.

However, investors also face risks. Informal transactions are harder to document and finance, while border disruptions, weak infrastructure, regulatory uncertainty and limited market information can increase costs.

Turning Invisible Trade into Economic Intelligence

The report argues that West Africa's biggest challenge is now political and institutional rather than technical. Benin, Togo and Nigeria have already demonstrated that informal cross-border trade can be measured, while the CILSS-led ECO-ICBT programme has provided experience in regional monitoring.

The next step should be to connect these efforts. ECOWAS, working with UEMOA, CILSS, national statistical offices, central banks and private-sector organisations such as WACTAF, could develop common definitions, product classifications and data-collection methods.

A major objective should be a unified West African food-trade dataset combining formal and unrecorded trade. Governments could use it to identify their real trading partners, improve national accounts, monitor food availability and direct infrastructure towards active trade corridors. Businesses could use the same information to identify markets, customers and investment opportunities.

The issue is becoming more urgent as Africa pursues deeper economic integration. The Kampala Declaration calls for intra-African food trade to triple by 2035 and agrifood output to rise by 45%. AfCFTA and ECOWAS initiatives similarly aim to expand regional commerce.

But governments cannot reliably measure progress if most existing food trade remains statistically invisible. West Africa already has a large regional food market. Making that market visible could turn nearly USD 10 billion in poorly measured commerce into actionable intelligence for governments, development partners and businesses and provide a stronger foundation for investment, regional integration and food security.