Rouble recovers from hitting weakest since late April to dollar

The Russian currency has fallen rapidly from as strong as 76 to the dollar last week, but analysts do not expect the rouble to weaken much further, with month-end tax payments, which usually lead exporters to convert foreign currency revenues to meet local liabilities, approaching. "A strong resistance point for the (rouble/dollar) pair is around 81.50," said Alexei Antonov of Alor Broker.

The rouble recovered from a nearly three-week low past 81 against the dollar on Wednesday, seeking to avoid a fifth consecutive session of decline under pressure from limited FX supply and sanctions threats. By 1436 GMT, the rouble was 0.1% stronger against the dollar at 80.30, recovering from earlier hitting 81.06, its weakest point since April 28.

It had gained 0.7% to trade at 86.94 versus the euro and had firmed 0.4% against the yuan to 11.44 . The Russian currency has fallen rapidly from as strong as 76 to the dollar last week, but analysts do not expect the rouble to weaken much further, with month-end tax payments, which usually lead exporters to convert foreign currency revenues to meet local liabilities, approaching.

"A strong resistance point for the (rouble/dollar) pair is around 81.50," said Alexei Antonov of Alor Broker. "It is unlikely to be passed without pausing, in the context of the rouble's current oversold (position)." Lower export earnings have hampered the rouble in recent months, especially as imports, which slumped in 2022, recover. Lower activity on the exporters' market and increased activity on the importers' side was likely behind the rouble's weakening, said First Asset Management.

Meanwhile, leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) nations plan to tighten sanctions on Russia at their summit in Japan this week, with steps aimed at energy and exports that have aided Moscow's military effort in Ukraine, officials with direct knowledge of the discussions said. Russia's budget deficit, which stood at $44 billion for January to April and already above the government's plan for 2023 as a whole, has also put pressure on the rouble.

Russia is spending heavily as energy revenues nosedive. The country's current account surplus is also narrowing rapidly. Brent crude oil, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, was 0.5% higher at $75.29 a barrel.

Russian stock indexes were mixed. The dollar-denominated RTS index was up 0.2% to 1,032.5 points. The rouble-based MOEX Russian index was 0.1% lower at 2,630.6 points.