India's Record Soaring Soyoil Imports: A Global Impact

India is set to increase its soyoil imports by 60% in 2024/25 due to lower prices compared to palm oil, driving up global soyoil prices. This shift is expected to impact the edible oil import dynamics significantly, with palm and sunflower oil imports decreasing substantially amidst price hikes.

India's soyoil imports are expected to surge by 60% to a record high in the 2024/25 season, primarily owing to competitive pricing against palm oil, according to six industry dealers consulted by Reuters.

This substantial increase in soyoil imports by the world's largest vegetable oil importer is poised to support global soyoil prices, which have experienced a 31% rise this year. In contrast, benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure. Projections indicate that soyoil imports will rise to 5.5 million metric tons from 3.44 million tons year-on-year in the marketing year concluding in October.

Conversely, palm oil imports are projected to fall by 13.5% to 7.8 million metric tons, reaching their lowest level since 2019/20. The drop in palm oil imports, coupled with a 20% reduction in sunflower oil imports, will see overall edible oil imports climb by 1% to 16.1 million tons. Price increases in palm and rapeseed oil have prompted Indian consumers to lean towards soyoil, sourced tax-free from Nepal under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement, among other countries.