Monsoon 2020 likely to be above normal: Weather Company

India is likely to have an "unusually wet" and "above normal" monsoon this season due to La Nina conditions, the Weather Company, a private forecaster, said in its forecast on Thursday. Monsoon could also hit Kerala on May 31, a day before its normal onset date, the Weather Company, an IBM venture, said.   If the predictions come true, India will have a second consecutive "above normal" monsoon season this year. "Uncalibrated climate model forecasts suggest an unusually wet monsoon season this year, although our calibrated and bias-corrected model suggests a lesser degree of dryness," the forecast said.

"The evidence is clearly more weighted towards a wetter-than-normal season, and we have started with a 105 per cent of normal forecast, although there is clearly room to increase that value pending the next set of model forecasts and data available in early April. We also expect a 31 May monsoon onset, or 1 day earlier than normal," it added. It added that a transition is expected from weak El Nino conditions towards La Nina conditions during the monsoon period, which will favour a large-scale atmospheric pattern that will become increasingly conducive to heavier rainfalls later in the season. The El Nino is associated with heating of Pacific waters and is widely believed to have a negative impact on the Indian monsoon. La Nina is contrast to El Nino and is considered good for Indian subcontinent with regards to monsoon. "The IOD signal will likely not be as positive as last year, if it is positive at all, which may limit the chance of a repeat of the 110 per cent of normal season we had in 2019," it added.

A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is considered good for Indian monsoon and the phenomenon is associated with cooling of the Indian Ocean waters. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is likely to come up with its monsoon forecast later this month..

(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)