Kerala's spurt in covid cases due to robust surveillance,

The most scientific method of approach inconnection with a pandemic is to delay the peak of it. Many nations faced a shortage of beds as the casespeaked and choked their health system resulting in highmortality rates, she added.When asked about the state accounting for over 25 percent of new cases in the country, she said it is meaninglessto say that Keralas situation is worse. In certain other states, when they reached the peakof the pandemic, thousands had lost their lives and theirhealth systems were choked.

After managing toflatten the Covid-19 curve within months of reporting thecountry's first coronavirus case last year, Kerala is nowgrappling with a sharp surge in its daily infections,prompting the Centre to send a high-level team to assist it.

However, the state government maintains the ''highnumbers'' are a result of robust surveillance and reportingsystem, while pointing to its low fatality rate.

Close to 40,000 cases have been reported from thesouthern state in the last week alone, with a daily additionof around 5,000, even as its neighbours and other highprevalence states like Tamil Nadu and Karnataka have startedseeing a reversal.

As of Thursday, Kerala recorded 5,051 new coronaviruscases, including four UK returnees and 5,638 recoveries as thetotal caseload inched towards the eight lakh mark.

The toll stood at 3,234 while the active cases arenearly 65,000.

''The rise in the number of cases in the state is dueto a robust surveillance and reporting system. We managed todelay the peak of the pandemic and upgraded the threshold ofour health system.'' ''Our ultimate aim is to save the lives of the peopleand reduce the mortality rate. Even with this high number ofcases, we managed to reduce the death rate,'' Health Minister KK Shailaja told P T I.

She said the upward graph could also be attributed tothe recently concluded local body polls, swept by the rulingCPI(M)-led LDF.

The state saw the virus curve flatten in April-Maylast year, even as it witnessed an increase in the cases laterin the wake of the return of Keralites from abroad followingthe lockdown.

Shailaja said Kerala managed to maintain a very lowcase fatality rate in the state even as it was in a vulnerableposition with high population density, high number of old-agepopulation and the most number of diabetic patients.

''Yes there is an increase in cases due to the recentlyconcluded local body polls and all. But we need to understandthat the pandemic is still here and the lockdown restrictionswere eased. The most scientific method of approach inconnection with a pandemic is to delay the peak of it.'' ''Many nations faced a shortage of beds as the casespeaked and choked their health system resulting in highmortality rates,'' she added.

When asked about the state accounting for over 25 percent of new cases in the country, she said ''it is meaninglessto say that Kerala's situation is worse.'' ''In certain other states, when they reached the peakof the pandemic, thousands had lost their lives and theirhealth systems were choked. It is meaningless to say thatKerala's situation is worse as we have a high number ofpositive cases. They are not considering the case fatalityrate.

''Look at the example of Dharavi (in Mumbai). Theyhave done a good job there. But the pandemic was containedthere after nearly 400 deaths,'' the minister said.

She inissted the state delayed the peak of thepandemic by ''maintaining a stable plateau'' without a suddensurge in cases and ''the advantage is that we could maintainthe number of cases within the potential threshold of ourhealth care system giving us breathing space''.

By delaying the peak of the pandemic, the governmentincreased the number of ICUs, ventilators in the hospitals andoxygen supply has been ensured to all beds.

''Even though there was an increase in the number ofcases, it has only taken up 50 per cent of our hospitalcapacity. Similarly, we are using only 50 per cent of ourICUs, and only 40 per cent of our ventilators are filled. Ourcase fatality rate is at 0.4 per cent,'' she said.

On the Centre deputing a team, headed by the Directorof the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), Dr S KSingh to support public health interventions for COVID-19management in Kerala, Shailaja welcomed the move.

''It is always good to have a central team visiting thestate. We can explain to them the steps taken by us incontaining the virus,'' she added.

Public Health officials of the state say thepercentage of active cases is high in Kerala because of thestate's discharge policy which stipulates that the patientshould record a negative result before discharge.

''Our increased number of cases at this period of timeis rather a reflection of our success of implementing thedelaying of the peak of the pandemic rather than our failure.

That is the way we deal with a pandemic. The only questionthat will be asked at the end of the pandemic is how manylives we have saved and at what cost,'' Dr Mohammed Asheel,Director of Social Security Mission said.

A senior public health official from the state told PT I that along with the case fatality rate, ''it is equallyimportant to keep the system from being over stretched.'' The official said Kerala never had any issue ofshortage of beds in ICUs in the hospitals.

''We never had any issue of shortage of oxygen. Suchlapses are being reported even from developed nations. InKerala such a situation will never arise as we are allprepared. Still we need our numbers to come down and for thatpublic should take the responsibility,'' the official said.

While the total virus caseload in the state hasmounted to 7,95,933, recoveries have touched 7,28,060 and theactive cases stand at 64,445, as of Thursday.

At least 1,93,370 people are under observation invarious districts, including 11,435 in hospitals.PTI RRT SASSPTI PTI