Lebanon’s Path to Recovery: War’s Economic Impact and 11 Billion Rebuilding Challenge

The Lebanon Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) March 2025 estimates $6.8 billion in damage, $7.2 billion in economic losses, and $11 billion in recovery needs from the 2023–2024 conflict, severely impacting housing, businesses, infrastructure, and public services, while displacing 900,000 people and deepening the economic crisis. Urgent recovery efforts must prioritize rebuilding infrastructure, restoring livelihoods, and ensuring food security, with private sector investment and public sector reforms critical for long-term stability.

The Lebanon Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) March 2025, conducted by the World Bank in collaboration with the National Council for Scientific Research - Lebanon (CNRS-L), FAO, IOM, UN-Habitat, UNDP, UNICEF, UNEP, WFP, and WHO, provides a comprehensive evaluation of the 2023–2024 conflict's impact. Spanning from October 8, 2023, to December 20, 2024, the report estimates $6.8 billion in damages, $7.2 billion in economic losses, and $11 billion in recovery and reconstruction needs. It examines ten key sectors, including housing, commerce, industry, tourism, education, health, energy, transport, water, agriculture, environment, and municipal services. The conflict has exacerbated Lebanon’s economic crisis, with GDP contracting by 7.1% in 2024 and a cumulative decline of 40% since 2019. The large-scale destruction of infrastructure, businesses, and livelihoods has deepened social instability, leading to one of the worst displacement crises in Lebanon’s history.

Housing and Business Devastation

The housing sector suffered the most extensive damage, accounting for 67% of total destruction, amounting to $4.6 billion. Approximately 162,900 housing units, or 10% of Lebanon’s total housing stock, were damaged, with 45,400 completely destroyed. The most affected areas were Nabatiyeh ($2.2 billion), South Lebanon ($980 million), and Mount Lebanon ($973 million). Housing-related economic losses totaled $363 million, largely due to rental income loss and job losses among domestic workers. The estimated recovery cost stands at $6.3 billion, with 70% expected from the private sector and 30% from government support for vulnerable households.

The commerce, industry, and tourism sector suffered $612 million in direct damage, with 9,193 businesses affected. Economic losses totaled $3.4 billion, primarily due to business closures, declining consumer activity, and a 45% drop in tourism revenues caused by security concerns. The worst-hit districts were Nabatiyeh, Beirut, and Tyre. Recovery costs for the sector are estimated at $1.8 billion, focusing on business restoration, liquidity support, and infrastructure rehabilitation.

Education, Energy, and Public Health in Collapse

The education sector sustained $151 million in damage, affecting 358 schools, universities, and training centers. Economic losses reached $414 million, mainly from school closures and tuition losses. Recovery needs total $554 million, covering school repairs, catch-up programs for students, and psychosocial support for children affected by trauma. The energy sector was already fragile before the conflict, and it suffered $98 million in damage, mainly to power grids and distribution networks. Financial losses of $209 million were recorded due to billing disruptions and service interruptions. Rebuilding and restoring energy infrastructure will require $147 million, focusing on grid repairs, service improvements, and technical capacity-building.

The health sector experienced $208 million in damage, with 298 healthcare facilities destroyed or damaged. The economic loss of $700 million resulted from disrupted services, increased medical costs, and a shortage of healthcare personnel. Recovery costs for the sector stand at $409 million, focusing on infrastructure reconstruction, medical supplies, and financial support for public healthcare systems.

Agriculture and Environmental Damage

The agriculture and food security sector faced $79 million in damages, particularly affecting crops, irrigation systems, and fisheries. Economic losses reached $742 million, largely due to disruptions in production, supply chains, and access to markets. Recovery costs are estimated at $412 million, with $247 million allocated to emergency food security assistance for 550,000 people pushed into food insecurity.

The environment and debris management sector suffered $512 million in damage, with 9,700 hectares of forests, 32,000 hectares of grasslands, and 425 hectares of coastline severely impacted. Economic losses of $790 million stemmed from the destruction of natural ecosystems and loss of biodiversity. The estimated recovery cost of $444 million includes $105 million for debris clearance, hazardous waste disposal, and ecosystem restoration.

Displacement Crisis and Path to Recovery

The conflict displaced nearly 900,000 people, roughly 20% of Lebanon’s population. Many fled from Bent Jbeil, Tyre, Nabatiyeh, Marjaayoun, and Baabda, seeking refuge in Saida, Beirut, and Aley. The lack of habitable homes, damaged infrastructure, and security concerns make it difficult for displaced populations to return. More than 95% of those returning now reside in rental housing or temporary accommodations, with rising costs forcing families to prioritize survival over education and healthcare.

The food security crisis worsened, with nearly one-third of Lebanon’s population now facing acute food insecurity. Lebanon’s healthcare system, already weakened, struggles to meet the needs of the displaced, leaving many without access to essential medical care. Mental health concerns have risen, requiring urgent investment in psychosocial support programs.

With total recovery needs estimated at $11 billion, a significant portion of financing must come from the private sector, particularly in the housing and commerce sectors. The public sector must provide $3–5 billion for infrastructure, social welfare, and human development. Policy reforms, governance improvements, and international financial support will be critical in restoring investor confidence and ensuring long-term recovery.

Lebanon’s path to rebuilding must prioritize sustainability, resilience, and urban planning improvements. Infrastructure rehabilitation must include renewable energy solutions, smart urban development, and sustainable housing policies. A "build back better" approach must be adopted, ensuring that reconstruction efforts enhance disaster preparedness, economic stability, and social equity. The scale of damage and humanitarian impact demands immediate and sustained action to stabilize Lebanon and pave the way for a stronger, more resilient future.