Ukraine 2027 sowing area could fall by quarter as grain exports plunge, officials say

​Ukraine's 2027 planting campaign is at risk because farmers may lack the funds to sow crops after Russia's blockade of sea ports sharply curtailed exports, officials said on Thursday.

Ukraine is one of the world's leading ‌producers of grain and oilseeds, with annual exports totalling 60 million metric tons, mainly corn and wheat. "There is a risk that the area sown for the next harvest could decrease by 5 to 7 million hectares," the Agriculture Ministry said in a statement.

Ukraine sowed around 20 million hectares of grain and oilseeds ‌for the 2026 harvest, dominated by wheat, corn and sunflower. Russian missile and drone attacks have effectively halted Ukrainian agricultural exports through the deep-water ‌ports of Greater Odesa, which previously handled up to 90% of all shipments.

Exports have slumped this month, with rail and river routes unable to make up for the lost port capacity. Grain export shipments have totalled 574,000 metric tons so far in August, down 60% from the same period last month, state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia said on Thursday.

The volume included ⁠170,000 tons ​shipped to Ukraine's Danube ports and 343,200 ⁠tons transported to the country's western border crossings, it said. Ukrzaliznytsia says it can transport about 1 million tons of grain a month to land borders for export and 500,000 ⁠tons to Danube ports.

By comparison, Greater Odesa's deep-water ports can handle up to 6 million tons of grain exports a month. Agriculture ministry data show Ukraine exported just ​539,000 tons of grain from August 1 to 21, compared with 1.73 million in the same period a year earlier.

NO FLEET, FREQUENT AIR-RAID ⁠ALERTS Ukrainian railway officials say exports via the Danube could increase, as they did in the early years of the war, but a shortage of vessels and frequent air-raid alerts are ⁠hampering operations.

"We ​can ship 500,000 tons to the Danube... but the key issue is the regular availability of vessels for loading," Valeriy Tkachev, deputy head of Ukrzaliznytsia's commercial department, told traders during an online conference. Company data showed only nine rail wagons had been unloaded at Danube ports since midnight because ⁠air-raid alerts were in effect for most of that period.

Ukraine operates two main Danube ports, Izmail and Reni, but no grain wagons were unloaded ⁠at Reni in the past 24 ⁠hours because no vessels were available for loading. Traders and analysts said on Wednesday that up to 70 vessels were waiting near the Danube's Sulina Canal for access to Ukrainian ports to load grain for export, with ‌a shortage of pilots and ‌priority given to other cargoes creating long delays.