Finland's Stubb tells German newspaper Russia unlikely to risk attack on NATO

Finland's President Alexander Stubb said he did not believe ​Russia would risk an attack against a NATO ​country, telling Germany's Bild newspaper ‌it would "make no ​sense" to test the resolve of the alliance. Western officials have warned of a growing risk of Russian hybrid operations, including cyber attacks, against ‌European countries potentially leading to a direct confrontation with the NATO alliance. German officials have said they assess Russia would be in a position to attack a NATO country by 2029.

"If anyone has a crystal ball like ‌that – that's great. I simply see neither evidence nor facts to support it," he told Bild in ‌an interview published on Saturday, adding he did not believe that Russia "would ever want to attack NATO, the world's most powerful military alliance." Stubb, whose country joined NATO in 2023, abandoning its previous policy of neutrality following Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year earlier, said ⁠the ​alliance had to be ⁠prepared for any scenario but he did not believe Moscow was in a position to go to war with NATO.

He said NATO's ⁠strength in conventional weapons, missiles and nuclear weapons was too strong to attack, adding that he had intelligence information to ​back his assessment. "It makes no sense for any power in the world to test the resolve ⁠of this alliance," Stubb said.

He said Russia was trying to spread alarm in Europe through its information war. But it was ⁠currently ​taking unsustainable losses in Ukraine, losing around 30,000-35,000 troops a month and recruiting only around 27,000. "So they have fewer and fewer soldiers in an increasingly complex situation," he said. "I simply cannot see them suddenly being ⁠able to mobilise forces for two fronts."

Stubb said Ukraine was in a stronger position than at any time ⁠during the war, ⁠and it was vital that Europe continued to support Kjiv. "We must understand – you in Germany and we in Finland – that Ukraine is the best security guarantee we ‌have against Russia. ‌If Ukraine loses, we lose," he said.