Greece projects faster 2027 growth, steeper debt ratio decline

Greece expects its economy to grow faster in 2027, outperforming Europe's major economies, thanks ‌to higher investment and robust consumer spending, the government's 2027 draft budget showed on Monday. It expects gross domestic product to rise 2.3% next year, following expansion of 2.0% this year, with investments rising by 7.9% and private consumption by 1.5%.

"Despite an adverse ‌external environment, the Greek economy is expected to continue posting significantly stronger growth than the euro zone average for a ‌seventh consecutive year," Greek Finance Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis said in a press release after submitting the draft budget to parliament. The government also expects a fiscal surplus of 0.3% of GDP in 2027 and a primary surplus, which excludes interest-rate payments, of 3.3% of GDP. Greece is one of a ⁠few euro ​zone countries running a fiscal surplus, ⁠allowing it to reduce its public debt at a fast pace.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to fall to 128.8% of GDP in 2027 from ⁠136.8% this year, having declined by a cumulative 67 percentage points since 2020. The ratio is expected to be below Italy's by the ​end of this year, thanks in part to early repayments of bailout loans. The higher growth projection and the ⁠debt reduction show Greece moving further away from its 2009-18 debt crisis, which exposed high levels of undisclosed Greek debt and nearly pushed the country out of ⁠the ​euro zone.

Greece's 10-year bond yield stood at 4.49% on Monday, lower than the 4.90% for France and the 4.66% for Italy. The new budget also includes tax breaks and subsidies of about €2.2 billion ($2.47 billion) to boost low-income households and pensioners ⁠whosuffer from high energy and housing prices.

Despite the growing economy, many ordinary Greeks are still struggling, which is preventing a stronger ⁠rebound. Around 1.5 million people — ⁠almost a quarter of the adult population — are stuck with bad loans they cannot repay. The real purchasing power of households is one of the lowest in the EU. The average monthly ‌salary of €1,500 ($1,681) remains ‌stuck at 2009 levels.

($1 = 0.8921 euros)