EXPLAINER-Where does Philippine VP Sara Duterte's impeachment trial stand?

EXPLAINER-Where does Philippine VP Sara Duterte's impeachment trial stand?

Lawyers for Philippine Vice President ​Sara Duterte have started their defence against allegations she accumulated unexplained wealth, entering a crucial stage ​in an impeachment trial that could end her hopes of becoming ‌president ​in 2028. WHAT'S THE LATEST IN THE TRIAL?

Prosecutors rested their case last month after withdrawing three of the four impeachment charges against Duterte, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, to try to expedite the trial by focusing on her wealth and business interests and her asset declarations. The trial heard nearly ‌four months of testimony from prosecution witnesses, including tax, banking and anti-money laundering officials.

Prosecutors say assets they linked to Duterte and her family were either missing from her declarations or inconsistent with her net worth. A forensic financial analyst who testified said Duterte could have more than 800 million pesos ($12.70 million) in unexplained assets. Duterte's lawyers rejected that and called their first of 24 witnesses on Monday. Duterte has called the proceedings political harassment and ‌denies wrongdoing.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE OTHER CHARGES? The House of Representatives impeached Duterte on four charges initially, including misusing public funds, accumulating unexplained wealth, bribery and threatening the lives of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, ‌the first lady, and a former House Speaker.

The withdrawal of most of the charges should shorten proceedings, raising the prospect that a verdict could be reached before year-end. In the last impeachment trial in 2012, which resulted in the conviction of then Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona, the verdict came a few days after the defence concluded.

WHAT IS NEEDED TO CONVICT DUTERTE? Under the constitution, two-thirds of Senators — or 16 or 24 — are required to convict an impeached official, but in Duterte's trial the threshold ⁠has been changed.

In ​a major ruling in September, the number of ⁠votes prosecutors need for a conviction was lowered from 16 to 14, because four senator-judges cannot participate. They were sidelined due to legal actions against some, which include a scandal in a multi-billion-dollar public works programme, and the International Criminal Court's investigation into a ⁠bloody "war on drugs" led by Duterte's father.

With the possibility that more senator-judges could be subject to separate legal proceedings, the change in the vote threshold could have broader implications. WILL THERE BE ENOUGH VOTES TO CONVICT HER?

While the lower ​threshold is seen as favourable for prosecutors, it could still be a challenge to secure a conviction. Political loyalties in the Philippines are fluid, and Duterte has influential allies in the Senate ⁠and beyond, making the outcome difficult to predict.

The trial came with the backdrop of a bitter fallout between Duterte and Marcos that followed the collapse of the once-powerful political alliance between their families, which joined forces to win the 2022 election. WHAT IMPACT CAN THE TRIAL ⁠HAVE ​POLITICALLY?

Duterte plans to run for president in 2028 and surveys consistently show her as the frontrunner to succeed Marcos, who cannot seek re-election and is limited to a single term. He has said he would endorse a successor. A conviction could remove Duterte as vice president and disqualify her from holding public office, potentially knocking the top contender out of the 2028 race.

That gives the trial consequences beyond ⁠the remaining years of Duterte's term and has focused attention on how individual senators, some of whom have their own political ambitions, will vote. WHAT HAPPENS IF DUTERTE IS CONVICTED?

If Duterte is removed, Marcos ⁠would nominate a new vice president from among members of ⁠the Senate and lower house, who must be confirmed by a majority of both chambers, voting separately. If acquitted, Duterte would remain vice president and could pursue the presidency in 2028, although an impeached official can still face separate criminal proceedings.

Duterte is facing a criminal case before a trial court in connection with ‌the alleged threats she made ‌against Marcos and members of his family. She posted bail in September after the court ordered her arrest. (Reporting ​by Karen Lema; Editing by David Stanway, Martin Petty)

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