Electric Boda Bodas Promise Higher Incomes, but Uganda’s Just Transition Test Looms

Uganda’s shift to electric motorcycles and minibuses could significantly raise driver incomes, create thousands of new jobs, and support climate goals, but only if skills, gender inclusion, and worker protection are actively addressed. Without deliberate policy action, the transition risks leaving women and informal workers behind while delivering only limited environmental gains.

Uganda’s plan to electrify its transport sector is being promoted not only as a way to cut emissions, but as a chance to reshape livelihoods in a country where transport is deeply informal and employment is fragile. A new assessment by Neyen Consulting for the African Development Bank Group, supported by the Climate Investment Funds and carried out with Uganda’s Ministry of Works and Transport, examines what this shift could mean for drivers, mechanics, manufacturers, women, and public finances over the next decade.

Why Boda Bodas Matter So Much

Motorcycle taxis, known as boda bodas, are the backbone of urban transport in Uganda. They account for about half of all motorized vehicles and provide income for hundreds of thousands of mostly young men. They also contribute heavily to congestion, air pollution, fuel imports, and road accidents, especially in Kampala. Under Uganda’s climate commitments, the government plans to replace 60 percent of the boda boda fleet with electric motorcycles by 2035 and to rely more on minibuses, or kamunye, to move people more efficiently.

The report shows that this shift could slow the unchecked growth of motorcycles while keeping mobility affordable. But it also makes clear that the real question is not whether electric vehicles work, but who gains and who loses as they spread.

Electric Motorcycles, Bigger Paychecks

For boda boda drivers, the numbers look encouraging. Electric motorcycles cost much less to run than petrol-powered ones. They require no fuel, far less maintenance, and no engine oil. Under the battery-swapping model already used by many electric motorcycle companies, riders buy the bike without the battery and pay per swap, keeping upfront costs similar to conventional motorcycles.

As a result, monthly operating costs are expected to fall by around 45 percent. By 2035, the average driver who switches to electric could earn nearly 200,000 Ugandan shillings more per month, a profit increase of about 33 percent. Younger drivers stand to benefit the most. Those under 20, who currently earn the least and are often stuck renting bikes, could see their incomes rise by more than 60 percent. For many, electrification could mean the difference between scraping by and building savings.

Jobs Beyond the Handlebars

The impact of electrification goes well beyond motorcycle riders. The planned expansion of electric kamunye minibuses could create more than 10,000 jobs by 2035, including drivers, conductors, and other workers who operate at taxi stages. These minibuses can carry more passengers per trip, helping reduce congestion while creating more stable employment.

There is also a quieter opportunity in manufacturing. As demand grows for electric motorcycles and minibuses, Uganda could assemble batteries and vehicles domestically. The report estimates that around 3,100 manufacturing jobs could be created by 2035, many centered around Jinja and the Busoga region, where industrial activity already exists. These jobs could help Uganda move beyond informal services into higher-value industrial work, but only if workers have the right skills.

Who Risks Being Left Behind

Not everyone benefits automatically. Electric motorcycles need far less repair than petrol ones, which threatens jobs in motorcycle maintenance and repair. While new jobs will appear in electric vehicle servicing, the report estimates that by 2035, Uganda could see a net loss of about 2,400 repair jobs. The losses are expected to come later in the transition, after 2029, giving time to prepare. Up to 80 percent of current mechanics could retrain to work on electric vehicles, but this will require early investment in skills, certification, and support for older or vulnerable workers.

Gender inequality is another major risk. Women make up only about one percent of boda boda riders and are also underrepresented among kamunye drivers and manufacturing workers. Without deliberate policies on safety, training, finance, and public attitudes, women are likely to miss out on most of the new income and jobs created by electrification.

Clean Air, Power, and Public Money

Electrifying boda bodas will reduce tailpipe emissions, but the report urges realism. By 2035, national air pollution levels are expected to fall only slightly, by about 0.22 micrograms per cubic meter of PM2.5. Local improvements along busy routes may be more noticeable, but electrification alone will not solve Uganda’s air quality crisis.

Electric vehicles will also increase electricity demand, but not enough to strain the power system. By 2035, electric motorcycles and minibuses are expected to use less than three percent of total electricity demand. The impact on government finances is less clear. Higher electricity sales could boost tax revenues, but lower fuel imports and fuel taxes may offset these gains.

Ultimately, the report’s message is straightforward. Electrifying transport can raise incomes, create jobs, and support climate goals, but only if it is managed carefully. Technology sets the direction, but policy determines whether Uganda’s electric future is fair, inclusive, and truly transformative.